Iridium Communications Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| IRDM Stock | USD 20.90 0.29 1.37% |
Iridium Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Iridium Communications' stock price is about 60. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Iridium, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Iridium Communications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Iridium Communications from the perspective of Iridium Communications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Iridium Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 21.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.71. Iridium Communications after-hype prediction price | USD 20.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Iridium Communications to cross-verify your projections. Iridium Communications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Iridium price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Iridium using various technical indicators. When you analyze Iridium charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Iridium Communications Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Iridium Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 21.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.71.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Iridium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Iridium Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Iridium Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Iridium Communications | Iridium Communications Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Iridium Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Iridium Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Iridium Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.31 and 23.72, respectively. We have considered Iridium Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Iridium Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Iridium Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0876 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3849 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0211 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.7067 |
Predictive Modules for Iridium Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Iridium Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Iridium Communications' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Iridium Communications After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Iridium Communications at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Iridium Communications or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Iridium Communications, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Iridium Communications Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Iridium Communications' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Iridium Communications' historical news coverage. Iridium Communications' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.19 and 23.61, respectively. We have considered Iridium Communications' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Iridium Communications is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Iridium Communications is based on 3 months time horizon.
Iridium Communications Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Iridium Communications is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Iridium Communications backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Iridium Communications, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 2.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.90 | 20.90 | 0.00 |
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Iridium Communications Hype Timeline
Iridium Communications is currently traded for 20.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Iridium is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on Iridium Communications is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.90. About 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Iridium Communications was currently reported as 4.3. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.92. Iridium Communications last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Iridium Communications to cross-verify your projections.Iridium Communications Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Iridium Communications' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Iridium Communications' future price movements. Getting to know how Iridium Communications' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Iridium Communications may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CCOI | Cogent Communications Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 6.76 | (9.80) | 34.85 | |
| IHS | IHS Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.18 | 0.12 | 3.35 | (3.32) | 12.66 | |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.11 | (2.49) | 6.84 | |
| WLY | John Wiley Sons | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.97 | (4.17) | 12.41 | |
| LILA | Liberty Latin America | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.16 | (0.02) | 3.52 | (3.12) | 15.16 | |
| YELP | Yelp Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.38 | (3.57) | 12.51 | |
| TV | Grupo Televisa SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.12 | 0.14 | 4.14 | (2.90) | 14.30 | |
| LION | Lionsgate Studios Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.34 | 0.25 | 4.84 | (2.58) | 11.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for Iridium Communications
For every potential investor in Iridium, whether a beginner or expert, Iridium Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Iridium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Iridium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Iridium Communications' price trends.Iridium Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Iridium Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Iridium Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Iridium Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Iridium Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Iridium Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Iridium Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Iridium Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Iridium Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Iridium Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Iridium Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Iridium Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting iridium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.71 | |||
| Variance | 7.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Iridium Communications
The number of cover stories for Iridium Communications depends on current market conditions and Iridium Communications' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Iridium Communications is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Iridium Communications' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Iridium Communications Short Properties
Iridium Communications' future price predictability will typically decrease when Iridium Communications' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Iridium Communications often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Iridium Communications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Iridium Communications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 119.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 93.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Iridium Communications to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Iridium Stock, please use our How to Invest in Iridium Communications guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Iridium diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Iridium Communications. Market participants price Iridium higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Iridium Communications data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Iridium Communications requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Iridium's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Iridium Communications' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Iridium Communications' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Iridium Communications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Iridium Communications is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Iridium Communications' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.