Illinois Tool Stock Forward View
| ITW Stock | USD 278.91 14.70 5.56% |
Illinois Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Illinois Tool's stock price is slightly above 68. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Illinois, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Illinois Tool hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Illinois Tool Works from the perspective of Illinois Tool response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Illinois Tool Works on the next trading day is expected to be 270.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.66. Illinois Tool after-hype prediction price | USD 278.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Illinois Tool to cross-verify your projections. Illinois Tool Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Illinois price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Illinois using various technical indicators. When you analyze Illinois charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Illinois Tool Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Illinois Tool Works on the next trading day is expected to be 270.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52, mean absolute percentage error of 10.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Illinois Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Illinois Tool's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Illinois Tool Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Illinois Tool | Illinois Tool Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Illinois Tool Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Illinois Tool's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Illinois Tool's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 268.82 and 271.63, respectively. We have considered Illinois Tool's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Illinois Tool stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Illinois Tool stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.4501 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.519 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 153.661 |
Predictive Modules for Illinois Tool
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Illinois Tool Works. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Illinois Tool's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Illinois Tool After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Illinois Tool at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Illinois Tool or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Illinois Tool, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Illinois Tool Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Illinois Tool's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Illinois Tool's historical news coverage. Illinois Tool's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 277.51 and 280.31, respectively. We have considered Illinois Tool's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Illinois Tool is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Illinois Tool Works is based on 3 months time horizon.
Illinois Tool Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Illinois Tool is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Illinois Tool backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Illinois Tool, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
278.91 | 278.91 | 0.00 |
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Illinois Tool Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Illinois Tool Works is traded for 278.91. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.39. Illinois is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Illinois Tool is about 81.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 279.30. About 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.3. Illinois Tool Works last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 26th of May 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Illinois Tool to cross-verify your projections.Illinois Tool Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Illinois Tool's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Illinois Tool's future price movements. Getting to know how Illinois Tool's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Illinois Tool may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EMR | Emerson Electric | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.50 | 0.12 | 2.34 | (2.49) | 8.01 | |
| CMI | Cummins | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.28 | 2.83 | (2.27) | 8.70 | |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.45 | 0.01 | 3.03 | (2.18) | 7.17 | |
| CSX | CSX Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | 0.11 | 2.27 | (2.04) | 5.63 | |
| TDG | Transdigm Group Incorporated | 14.67 | 10 per month | 2.00 | 0 | 1.70 | (1.73) | 5.06 | |
| TRI | Thomson Reuters | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 1.59 | (3.66) | 6.70 | |
| ROP | Roper Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.54 | (2.41) | 12.33 | |
| AME | Ametek Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.59 | 0.18 | 1.87 | (1.16) | 4.58 | |
| CP | Canadian Pacific Railway | 2.45 | 6 per month | 1.30 | 0.07 | 2.54 | (2.05) | 7.63 | |
| JCI | Johnson Controls International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.55 | 0 | 1.94 | (2.00) | 8.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for Illinois Tool
For every potential investor in Illinois, whether a beginner or expert, Illinois Tool's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Illinois Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Illinois. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Illinois Tool's price trends.Illinois Tool Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Illinois Tool stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Illinois Tool could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Illinois Tool by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Illinois Tool Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Illinois Tool stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Illinois Tool shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Illinois Tool stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Illinois Tool Works entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 247041.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.757 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 273.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 275.08 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 13.09 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 14.7 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 68.73 |
Illinois Tool Risk Indicators
The analysis of Illinois Tool's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Illinois Tool's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting illinois stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.927 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9672 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9354 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Illinois Tool
The number of cover stories for Illinois Tool depends on current market conditions and Illinois Tool's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Illinois Tool is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Illinois Tool's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Illinois Tool Short Properties
Illinois Tool's future price predictability will typically decrease when Illinois Tool's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Illinois Tool Works often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Illinois Tool's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Illinois Tool's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 297.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 948 M |
Additional Tools for Illinois Stock Analysis
When running Illinois Tool's price analysis, check to measure Illinois Tool's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Illinois Tool is operating at the current time. Most of Illinois Tool's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Illinois Tool's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Illinois Tool's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Illinois Tool to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.