Ivanhoe Mines Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

IVN Stock  CAD 16.96  0.77  4.76%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ivanhoe Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 16.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.54. Ivanhoe Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Ivanhoe Mines' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ivanhoe Mines' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ivanhoe Mines fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Ivanhoe Mines' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Ivanhoe Mines' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ivanhoe Mines, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ivanhoe Mines' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.77)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.0401
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.1891
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.388
Wall Street Target Price
18.4278
Using Ivanhoe Mines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ivanhoe Mines from the perspective of Ivanhoe Mines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ivanhoe Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 16.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.54.

Ivanhoe Mines after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 16.93  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ivanhoe Mines to cross-verify your projections.

Ivanhoe Mines Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ivanhoe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ivanhoe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ivanhoe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Ivanhoe Mines is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Ivanhoe Mines Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ivanhoe Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 16.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ivanhoe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ivanhoe Mines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ivanhoe Mines Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ivanhoe MinesIvanhoe Mines Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ivanhoe Mines Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ivanhoe Mines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ivanhoe Mines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.83 and 20.09, respectively. We have considered Ivanhoe Mines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.96
16.96
Expected Value
20.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ivanhoe Mines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ivanhoe Mines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.1122
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0634
MADMean absolute deviation0.4159
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0287
SAESum of the absolute errors24.54
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Ivanhoe Mines price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Ivanhoe Mines. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Ivanhoe Mines

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ivanhoe Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.8016.9320.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.5815.7118.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.1415.4417.74
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.040.030.05
Details

Ivanhoe Mines After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ivanhoe Mines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ivanhoe Mines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ivanhoe Mines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ivanhoe Mines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ivanhoe Mines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ivanhoe Mines' historical news coverage. Ivanhoe Mines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.80 and 20.06, respectively. We have considered Ivanhoe Mines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.96
16.93
After-hype Price
20.06
Upside
Ivanhoe Mines is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ivanhoe Mines is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ivanhoe Mines Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ivanhoe Mines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ivanhoe Mines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ivanhoe Mines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.32 
3.13
  0.03 
  0.04 
9 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.96
16.93
0.18 
3,130  
Notes

Ivanhoe Mines Hype Timeline

Ivanhoe Mines is currently traded for 16.96on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Ivanhoe is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.93. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Ivanhoe Mines is about 2484.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.92. About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Ivanhoe Mines was currently reported as 5.63. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 321.88. Ivanhoe Mines had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:10 split on the 26th of October 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ivanhoe Mines to cross-verify your projections.

Ivanhoe Mines Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ivanhoe Mines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ivanhoe Mines' future price movements. Getting to know how Ivanhoe Mines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ivanhoe Mines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AGIAlamos Gold 2.26 3 per month 2.04  0.16  4.79 (3.29) 11.97 
PAASPan American Silver(2.21)10 per month 1.67  0.27  7.32 (3.69) 14.76 
LUNLundin Mining 0.08 6 per month 2.42  0.24  5.26 (3.35) 18.85 
EDVEndeavour Mining Corp 0.24 7 per month 2.04  0.19  4.78 (3.75) 12.37 
TECK-ATeck Resources Limited(2.86)8 per month 1.88  0.11  3.43 (4.00) 9.69 
LUGLundin Gold 1.93 9 per month 2.32  0.11  5.95 (3.64) 15.29 
TECK-BTeck Resources Limited(1.20)8 per month 2.02  0.10  4.29 (3.71) 9.22 
AFMAlphamin Res 0.00 1 per month 2.64  0.15  5.88 (4.76) 16.71 
MDIMajor Drilling Group 0.42 7 per month 1.97  0.11  4.39 (3.67) 9.60 
CGGChina Gold International 0.08 5 per month 1.98  0.27  5.29 (4.04) 15.34 

Other Forecasting Options for Ivanhoe Mines

For every potential investor in Ivanhoe, whether a beginner or expert, Ivanhoe Mines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ivanhoe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ivanhoe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ivanhoe Mines' price trends.

Ivanhoe Mines Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ivanhoe Mines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ivanhoe Mines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ivanhoe Mines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ivanhoe Mines Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ivanhoe Mines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ivanhoe Mines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ivanhoe Mines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ivanhoe Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ivanhoe Mines Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ivanhoe Mines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ivanhoe Mines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ivanhoe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Ivanhoe Mines

The number of cover stories for Ivanhoe Mines depends on current market conditions and Ivanhoe Mines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ivanhoe Mines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ivanhoe Mines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Ivanhoe Mines Short Properties

Ivanhoe Mines' future price predictability will typically decrease when Ivanhoe Mines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ivanhoe Mines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ivanhoe Mines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ivanhoe Mines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.4 B
Cash And Short Term Investments102.1 M

Other Information on Investing in Ivanhoe Stock

Ivanhoe Mines financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ivanhoe Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ivanhoe with respect to the benefits of owning Ivanhoe Mines security.