Ivanhoe Mines Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| IVN Stock | CAD 16.96 0.77 4.76% |
Ivanhoe Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ivanhoe Mines' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ivanhoe Mines' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ivanhoe Mines fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of Ivanhoe Mines' share price is at 58. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ivanhoe Mines, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0401 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1891 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.388 | Wall Street Target Price 18.4005 |
Using Ivanhoe Mines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ivanhoe Mines from the perspective of Ivanhoe Mines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ivanhoe Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 16.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.87. Ivanhoe Mines after-hype prediction price | CAD 17.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ivanhoe |
Ivanhoe Mines Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ivanhoe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ivanhoe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ivanhoe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ivanhoe Mines Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ivanhoe Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 16.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ivanhoe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ivanhoe Mines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ivanhoe Mines Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ivanhoe Mines | Ivanhoe Mines Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ivanhoe Mines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ivanhoe Mines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ivanhoe Mines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.56 and 19.88, respectively. We have considered Ivanhoe Mines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ivanhoe Mines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ivanhoe Mines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6927 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6535 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0462 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.865 |
Predictive Modules for Ivanhoe Mines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ivanhoe Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ivanhoe Mines After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ivanhoe Mines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ivanhoe Mines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ivanhoe Mines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ivanhoe Mines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ivanhoe Mines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ivanhoe Mines' historical news coverage. Ivanhoe Mines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.07 and 20.39, respectively. We have considered Ivanhoe Mines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ivanhoe Mines is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ivanhoe Mines is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ivanhoe Mines Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ivanhoe Mines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ivanhoe Mines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ivanhoe Mines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 3.16 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.96 | 17.23 | 1.59 |
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Ivanhoe Mines Hype Timeline
Ivanhoe Mines is currently traded for 16.96on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Ivanhoe is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 17.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 1.59%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Ivanhoe Mines is about 45142.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.96. The company reported the revenue of 40.82 M. Net Income was 179.12 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 23.38 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ivanhoe Mines to cross-verify your projections.Ivanhoe Mines Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ivanhoe Mines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ivanhoe Mines' future price movements. Getting to know how Ivanhoe Mines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ivanhoe Mines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AGI | Alamos Gold | (0.01) | 9 per month | 2.04 | 0.16 | 4.79 | (3.29) | 11.97 | |
| PAAS | Pan American Silver | 0.62 | 7 per month | 1.67 | 0.27 | 7.32 | (3.69) | 14.76 | |
| LUN | Lundin Mining | 0.89 | 4 per month | 2.42 | 0.24 | 5.26 | (3.35) | 18.85 | |
| EDV | Endeavour Mining Corp | (1.47) | 7 per month | 2.04 | 0.19 | 4.78 | (3.75) | 12.37 | |
| TECK-A | Teck Resources Limited | (2.86) | 8 per month | 1.88 | 0.11 | 3.43 | (4.00) | 9.69 | |
| LUG | Lundin Gold | 1.93 | 9 per month | 2.32 | 0.11 | 5.95 | (3.64) | 15.29 | |
| TECK-B | Teck Resources Limited | 0.72 | 8 per month | 2.02 | 0.10 | 4.29 | (3.71) | 9.22 | |
| AFM | Alphamin Res | 0.70 | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.15 | 5.88 | (4.76) | 16.71 | |
| MDI | Major Drilling Group | 0.42 | 7 per month | 1.97 | 0.11 | 4.39 | (3.67) | 9.60 | |
| CGG | China Gold International | (0.87) | 1 per month | 1.98 | 0.27 | 5.29 | (4.04) | 15.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ivanhoe Mines
For every potential investor in Ivanhoe, whether a beginner or expert, Ivanhoe Mines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ivanhoe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ivanhoe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ivanhoe Mines' price trends.Ivanhoe Mines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ivanhoe Mines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ivanhoe Mines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ivanhoe Mines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ivanhoe Mines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ivanhoe Mines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ivanhoe Mines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ivanhoe Mines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ivanhoe Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ivanhoe Mines Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ivanhoe Mines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ivanhoe Mines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ivanhoe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.11 | |||
| Variance | 9.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ivanhoe Mines
The number of cover stories for Ivanhoe Mines depends on current market conditions and Ivanhoe Mines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ivanhoe Mines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ivanhoe Mines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ivanhoe Mines Short Properties
Ivanhoe Mines' future price predictability will typically decrease when Ivanhoe Mines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ivanhoe Mines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ivanhoe Mines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ivanhoe Mines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.1 M |
Other Information on Investing in Ivanhoe Stock
Ivanhoe Mines financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ivanhoe Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ivanhoe with respect to the benefits of owning Ivanhoe Mines security.