Kinsale Capital Stock Forward View
| KNSL Stock | USD 371.32 29.68 7.40% |
Kinsale Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Kinsale Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Kinsale Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kinsale Capital fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength indicator of Kinsale Capital's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.28 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.712 | EPS Estimate Current Year 20.249 | EPS Estimate Next Year 22.4662 | Wall Street Target Price 446.6 |
Using Kinsale Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kinsale Capital Group from the perspective of Kinsale Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kinsale Capital using Kinsale Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kinsale using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kinsale Capital's stock price.
Kinsale Capital Short Interest
An investor who is long Kinsale Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Kinsale Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge Kinsale Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 433.0398 | Short Percent 0.0743 | Short Ratio 7.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 580.6 K | 50 Day MA 392.845 |
Kinsale Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kinsale Capital Group on the next trading day is expected to be 372.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 433.16.Kinsale Capital Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Kinsale Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kinsale. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kinsale can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kinsale Capital Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Kinsale Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Kinsale Capital.
Kinsale Capital Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Kinsale Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kinsale Capital Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kinsale Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kinsale Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kinsale Capital's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kinsale Capital Group on the next trading day is expected to be 372.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 433.16. Kinsale Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 371.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kinsale Capital to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kinsale contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kinsale Capital Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Kinsale Capital trading at USD 371.32, that is roughly USD 0.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kinsale Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kinsale Capital Group options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Kinsale Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kinsale Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kinsale Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kinsale Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kinsale Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kinsale Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kinsale Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kinsale. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Kinsale Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kinsale price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kinsale using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kinsale charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kinsale Capital Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Kinsale Capital's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2014-12-31 | Previous Quarter 170.2 M | Current Value 163.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 41.4 M |
Kinsale Capital Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kinsale Capital Group on the next trading day is expected to be 372.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.10, mean absolute percentage error of 75.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 433.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kinsale Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kinsale Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kinsale Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kinsale Capital | Kinsale Capital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Kinsale Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kinsale Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kinsale Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 369.70 and 374.29, respectively. We have considered Kinsale Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kinsale Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kinsale Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.4296 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.1009 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 433.1558 |
Predictive Modules for Kinsale Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kinsale Capital Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kinsale Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Kinsale Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kinsale Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kinsale Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kinsale Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kinsale Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kinsale Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kinsale Capital's historical news coverage. Kinsale Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 369.03 and 373.61, respectively. We have considered Kinsale Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kinsale Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kinsale Capital Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kinsale Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kinsale Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kinsale Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kinsale Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
371.32 | 371.32 | 0.00 |
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Kinsale Capital Hype Timeline
Kinsale Capital Group is now traded for 371.32. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Kinsale is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Kinsale Capital is about 4480.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 371.32. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Kinsale Capital was now reported as 80.19. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.19. Kinsale Capital Group recorded earning per share (EPS) of 21.65. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of February 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kinsale Capital to cross-verify your projections.Kinsale Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kinsale Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kinsale Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Kinsale Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kinsale Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AFG | American Financial Group | 1.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.36 | (2.02) | 5.39 | |
| AXS | AXIS Capital Holdings | 0.45 | 33 per month | 1.36 | (0.02) | 1.98 | (2.29) | 6.52 | |
| MORN | Morningstar | (2.76) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.00 | (3.80) | 12.13 | |
| CNA | CNA Financial | 0.30 | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.06 | 1.58 | (1.80) | 4.93 | |
| ORI | Old Republic International | (0.23) | 9 per month | 2.03 | 0.05 | 2.47 | (1.95) | 12.07 | |
| PRI | Primerica | 0.74 | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.59 | (1.89) | 6.66 | |
| SSB | SouthState | 0.15 | 6 per month | 0.85 | 0.14 | 2.92 | (1.50) | 5.69 | |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance | 0.45 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.66 | (2.03) | 5.99 | |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 0.21 | 8 per month | 1.21 | 0.12 | 2.93 | (2.21) | 7.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kinsale Capital
For every potential investor in Kinsale, whether a beginner or expert, Kinsale Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kinsale Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kinsale. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kinsale Capital's price trends.Kinsale Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kinsale Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kinsale Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kinsale Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kinsale Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kinsale Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kinsale Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kinsale Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kinsale Capital Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0972 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.81) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.93 | |||
| Day Median Price | 359.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 363.39 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 36.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.94) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (29.68) |
Kinsale Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kinsale Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kinsale Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kinsale stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Variance | 4.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kinsale Capital
The number of cover stories for Kinsale Capital depends on current market conditions and Kinsale Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kinsale Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kinsale Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kinsale Capital Short Properties
Kinsale Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kinsale Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kinsale Capital Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kinsale Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kinsale Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 167.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kinsale Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kinsale Capital. Expected growth trajectory for Kinsale significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Kinsale Capital assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.28 | Dividend Share 0.66 | Earnings Share 21.65 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.173 |
Investors evaluate Kinsale Capital Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Kinsale Capital's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Kinsale Capital's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Kinsale Capital's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Kinsale Capital represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Kinsale Capital's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.