American Financial Group Stock Price Patterns
| AFG Stock | USD 129.62 1.48 1.13% |
Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.183 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.654 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.0883 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.0317 | Wall Street Target Price 140.5 |
Using American Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Financial Group from the perspective of American Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Financial using American Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Financial's stock price.
American Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in American Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 132.0549 | Short Percent 0.022 | Short Ratio 2.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 132.7286 |
American Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Financial Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Financial.
American Financial Implied Volatility | 0.21 |
American Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Financial Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Financial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 129.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Financial Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0131% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With American Financial trading at USD 129.62, that is roughly USD 0.017 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Financial Group options at the current volatility level of 0.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out American Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. American Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Financial's historical news coverage. American Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 128.56 and 130.84, respectively. We have considered American Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.14 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
129.62 | 129.70 | 0.06 |
|
American Financial Hype Timeline
On the 19th of February American Financial is traded for 129.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. American is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 129.7 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 99.13%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on American Financial is about 716.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 129.63. The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.17 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 842 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.48 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out American Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how American Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CNA | CNA Financial | 0.24 | 8 per month | 0.81 | 0.08 | 1.62 | (1.80) | 4.93 | |
| KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group | 9.09 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.98 | (3.90) | 12.31 | |
| AIZ | Assurant | 1.27 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.73 | (1.80) | 11.00 | |
| FHN | First Horizon National | (0.94) | 7 per month | 1.12 | 0.12 | 3.35 | (1.80) | 7.47 | |
| ORI | Old Republic International | (0.23) | 9 per month | 2.12 | 0.02 | 2.47 | (2.02) | 12.07 | |
| GL | Globe Life | (2.28) | 10 per month | 0.94 | 0.06 | 1.94 | (1.58) | 6.53 | |
| RNR | Renaissancere Holdings | (0.58) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.11 | 2.66 | (2.28) | 8.86 | |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group | (3.25) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.88 | (4.72) | 10.53 | |
| ACGL | Arch Capital Group | 2.01 | 8 per month | 1.23 | 0.05 | 1.86 | (2.04) | 8.26 | |
| AXS | AXIS Capital Holdings | (3.74) | 7 per month | 1.34 | 0 | 2.01 | (2.29) | 6.52 |
American Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About American Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Financial Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Financial based on analysis of American Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Financial's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0679 | 0.0686 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.3 | 1.39 |
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Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Financial's price analysis, check to measure American Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Financial is operating at the current time. Most of American Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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