Knight Transportation Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| KNX Stock | USD 56.05 0.95 1.72% |
Knight Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of relative strength index of Knight Transportation's share price is at 57. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Knight Transportation, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3078 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.9031 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.9467 | Wall Street Target Price 63.1053 |
Using Knight Transportation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Knight Transportation from the perspective of Knight Transportation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Knight Transportation using Knight Transportation's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Knight using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Knight Transportation's stock price.
Knight Transportation Short Interest
An investor who is long Knight Transportation may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Knight Transportation and may potentially protect profits, hedge Knight Transportation with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 45.6077 | Short Percent 0.0685 | Short Ratio 3.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.3 M | 50 Day MA 52.343 |
Knight Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Knight Transportation on the next trading day is expected to be 56.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.75.Knight Transportation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Knight Transportation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Knight. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Knight can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Knight Transportation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Knight Transportation's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Knight Transportation.
Knight Transportation Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
Knight Transportation's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Knight Transportation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Knight Transportation's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Knight Transportation stock will not fluctuate a lot when Knight Transportation's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Knight Transportation on the next trading day is expected to be 56.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.75. Knight Transportation after-hype prediction price | USD 56.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Knight Transportation to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Knight contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Knight Transportation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Knight Transportation trading at USD 56.05, that is roughly USD 0.0179 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Knight Transportation's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Knight Transportation options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Knight Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Knight Transportation's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Knight Transportation's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Knight Transportation stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Knight Transportation's open interest, investors have to compare it to Knight Transportation's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Knight Transportation is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Knight. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Knight Transportation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Knight price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Knight using various technical indicators. When you analyze Knight charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Knight Transportation Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Knight Transportation on the next trading day is expected to be 56.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78, mean absolute percentage error of 1.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Knight Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Knight Transportation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Knight Transportation Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Knight Transportation | Knight Transportation Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Knight Transportation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Knight Transportation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Knight Transportation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.01 and 58.09, respectively. We have considered Knight Transportation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Knight Transportation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Knight Transportation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3687 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1938 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7792 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.75 |
Predictive Modules for Knight Transportation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Knight Transportation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Knight Transportation After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Knight Transportation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Knight Transportation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Knight Transportation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Knight Transportation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Knight Transportation's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Knight Transportation's historical news coverage. Knight Transportation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.06 and 58.14, respectively. We have considered Knight Transportation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Knight Transportation is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Knight Transportation is based on 3 months time horizon.
Knight Transportation Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Knight Transportation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Knight Transportation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Knight Transportation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 2.04 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
56.05 | 56.10 | 0.09 |
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Knight Transportation Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Knight Transportation is traded for 56.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.13. Knight is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 56.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Knight Transportation is about 594.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.18. The company reported the last year's revenue of 7.47 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 117.63 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.8 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Knight Transportation to cross-verify your projections.Knight Transportation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Knight Transportation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Knight Transportation's future price movements. Getting to know how Knight Transportation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Knight Transportation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TFII | TFI International | (0.65) | 7 per month | 1.56 | 0.14 | 3.13 | (2.47) | 9.73 | |
| SAIA | Saia Inc | (2.67) | 9 per month | 1.88 | 0.08 | 5.47 | (3.15) | 11.84 | |
| FSS | Federal Signal | 3.43 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.11 | (2.44) | 13.86 | |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | 3.46 | 7 per month | 1.56 | (0.01) | 2.84 | (2.63) | 9.75 | |
| TTC | Toro Co | 1.48 | 9 per month | 0.73 | 0.15 | 2.94 | (1.82) | 13.49 | |
| ESAB | ESAB Corp | 0.82 | 15 per month | 1.83 | (0.02) | 3.31 | (2.96) | 7.88 | |
| AL | Air Lease | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 0.25 | (0.17) | 0.66 | |
| R | Ryder System | (1.25) | 11 per month | 1.53 | 0.10 | 3.54 | (3.01) | 8.43 | |
| RYAAY | Ryanair Holdings PLC | (0.87) | 6 per month | 1.20 | 0.11 | 3.75 | (2.51) | 7.50 | |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water | (0.37) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.02 | (2.16) | 6.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for Knight Transportation
For every potential investor in Knight, whether a beginner or expert, Knight Transportation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Knight Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Knight. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Knight Transportation's price trends.Knight Transportation Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Knight Transportation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Knight Transportation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Knight Transportation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Knight Transportation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Knight Transportation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Knight Transportation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Knight Transportation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Knight Transportation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Knight Transportation Risk Indicators
The analysis of Knight Transportation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Knight Transportation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting knight stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Knight Transportation
The number of cover stories for Knight Transportation depends on current market conditions and Knight Transportation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Knight Transportation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Knight Transportation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Knight Transportation Short Properties
Knight Transportation's future price predictability will typically decrease when Knight Transportation's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Knight Transportation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Knight Transportation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Knight Transportation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 162.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 220.4 M |
Additional Tools for Knight Stock Analysis
When running Knight Transportation's price analysis, check to measure Knight Transportation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Knight Transportation is operating at the current time. Most of Knight Transportation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Knight Transportation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Knight Transportation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Knight Transportation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.