Karman Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| KRMN Stock | 111.61 6.82 6.51% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Karman Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 113.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 228.89. Karman Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Karman Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Karman Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Karman Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Karman Holdings' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.244 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.3583 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.5686 | Wall Street Target Price 96.2222 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.1095 |
Using Karman Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Karman Holdings from the perspective of Karman Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Karman Holdings using Karman Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Karman using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Karman Holdings' stock price.
Karman Holdings Short Interest
An investor who is long Karman Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Karman Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Karman Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 58.8435 | Short Percent 0.1532 | Short Ratio 4.55 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.2 M | 50 Day MA 75.5308 |
Karman Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Karman Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Karman. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Karman can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Karman Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Karman Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.94 |
Karman Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Karman Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Karman Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Karman Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Karman Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Karman Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 113.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 228.89. Karman Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 109.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Karman Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Karman contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Karman Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0588% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Karman Holdings trading at USD 111.61, that is roughly USD 0.0656 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Karman Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Karman Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.94%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Karman Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Karman Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Karman Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Karman Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Karman Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Karman Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Karman Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Karman. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Karman Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Karman price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Karman using various technical indicators. When you analyze Karman charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Karman Holdings Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Karman Holdings' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 13.3 M | Current Value 8.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 2 M |
Karman Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Karman Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 113.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.75, mean absolute percentage error of 21.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 228.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Karman Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Karman Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Karman Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Karman Holdings | Karman Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Karman Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Karman Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Karman Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 109.32 and 117.56, respectively. We have considered Karman Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Karman Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Karman Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1659 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.7522 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0493 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 228.886 |
Predictive Modules for Karman Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Karman Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Karman Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Karman Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Karman Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Karman Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Karman Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Karman Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Karman Holdings' historical news coverage. Karman Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 105.70 and 113.94, respectively. We have considered Karman Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Karman Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Karman Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Karman Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Karman Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Karman Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Karman Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 4.12 | 1.79 | 1.33 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
111.61 | 109.82 | 1.60 |
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Karman Holdings Hype Timeline
Karman Holdings is now traded for 111.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.79, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.33. Karman is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 109.82. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 126.38%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.6%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.55%. The volatility of related hype on Karman Holdings is about 170.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 112.94. About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Karman Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Karman Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Karman Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Karman Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Karman Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Karman Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ERJ | Embraer SA ADR | (0.11) | 8 per month | 1.72 | 0.04 | 4.02 | (2.78) | 10.26 | |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | 1.94 | 8 per month | 1.17 | 0.26 | 4.34 | (2.56) | 10.50 | |
| DRS | Leonardo DRS Common | (0.02) | 10 per month | 1.72 | (0) | 3.36 | (2.72) | 8.16 | |
| SARO | StandardAero | 0.37 | 9 per month | 1.56 | 0.06 | 3.07 | (3.37) | 7.19 | |
| BLD | Topbuild Corp | 16.74 | 10 per month | 1.89 | 0.05 | 4.50 | (3.27) | 10.98 | |
| STRL | Sterling Construction | 13.42 | 9 per month | 4.52 | 0.01 | 6.61 | (7.45) | 21.66 | |
| AYI | Acuity Brands | (19.60) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.66 | (2.93) | 16.54 | |
| TXT | Textron | 1.88 | 8 per month | 0.89 | 0.12 | 2.26 | (1.64) | 5.05 | |
| CAE | CAE Inc | 1.37 | 12 per month | 1.33 | 0.12 | 2.90 | (2.04) | 9.61 | |
| KTOS | Kratos Defense Security | 8.22 | 10 per month | 3.95 | 0.10 | 8.14 | (6.46) | 20.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Karman Holdings
For every potential investor in Karman, whether a beginner or expert, Karman Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Karman Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Karman. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Karman Holdings' price trends.Karman Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Karman Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Karman Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Karman Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Karman Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Karman Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Karman Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Karman Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Karman Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Karman Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Karman Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Karman Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting karman stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.02 | |||
| Variance | 16.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.03 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Karman Holdings
The number of cover stories for Karman Holdings depends on current market conditions and Karman Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Karman Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Karman Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Karman Holdings Short Properties
Karman Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Karman Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Karman Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Karman Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Karman Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 132.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Karman Holdings to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Karman Stock, please use our How to Invest in Karman Holdings guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Karman Holdings. If investors know Karman will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Karman Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.244 | Earnings Share 0.08 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.417 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Karman Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Karman that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Karman Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Karman Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Karman Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Karman Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Karman Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Karman Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Karman Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.