Lanvin Group Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LANV Stock | 1.40 0.11 7.28% |
Lanvin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Lanvin Group's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.89) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.78) | Wall Street Target Price 1.5154 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) |
Using Lanvin Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lanvin Group Holdings from the perspective of Lanvin Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lanvin Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.34. Lanvin Group after-hype prediction price | USD 1.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lanvin Group to cross-verify your projections. Lanvin Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lanvin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lanvin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lanvin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lanvin Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lanvin Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lanvin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lanvin Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lanvin Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lanvin Group | Lanvin Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lanvin Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lanvin Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lanvin Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.45, respectively. We have considered Lanvin Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lanvin Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lanvin Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.5343 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0125 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0724 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0393 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.3426 |
Predictive Modules for Lanvin Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lanvin Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lanvin Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lanvin Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lanvin Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lanvin Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lanvin Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lanvin Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lanvin Group's historical news coverage. Lanvin Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 6.47, respectively. We have considered Lanvin Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lanvin Group is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lanvin Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lanvin Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lanvin Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lanvin Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lanvin Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 5.04 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.40 | 1.39 | 0.71 |
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Lanvin Group Hype Timeline
Lanvin Group Holdings is now traded for 1.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Lanvin is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.39. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.71%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Lanvin Group is about 4200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.34. About 85.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.64. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lanvin Group Holdings recorded a loss per share of 1.81. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lanvin Group to cross-verify your projections.Lanvin Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lanvin Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lanvin Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Lanvin Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lanvin Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ELA | Envela Corp | (0.97) | 10 per month | 3.91 | 0.11 | 10.52 | (8.09) | 25.60 | |
| CHPT | ChargePoint Holdings | 0.11 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.02 | (6.84) | 31.33 | |
| FLWS | 1 800 FLOWERSCOM | 0.09 | 6 per month | 4.12 | 0.05 | 7.67 | (7.38) | 43.73 | |
| MOV | Movado Group | (0.15) | 18 per month | 1.68 | 0.18 | 4.31 | (3.87) | 10.14 | |
| GAMB | Gambling Group | 0.18 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.58 | (4.36) | 26.59 | |
| XPOF | Xponential Fitness | 0.11 | 9 per month | 2.76 | 0.09 | 7.42 | (4.67) | 25.15 | |
| BARK | BARK Inc | (0.02) | 9 per month | 3.01 | (0.0002) | 10.61 | (5.56) | 30.25 | |
| ONEW | Onewater Marine | 0.16 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.92 | (5.54) | 14.64 | |
| TWNP | Twin Hospitality Group | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.47) | 6.74 | (39.44) | 71.01 | |
| BNED | Barnes Noble Education | (0.59) | 10 per month | 3.22 | 0.01 | 4.80 | (5.32) | 42.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lanvin Group
For every potential investor in Lanvin, whether a beginner or expert, Lanvin Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lanvin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lanvin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lanvin Group's price trends.Lanvin Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lanvin Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lanvin Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lanvin Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lanvin Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lanvin Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lanvin Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lanvin Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lanvin Group Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lanvin Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lanvin Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lanvin Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lanvin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.0 | |||
| Variance | 24.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lanvin Group
The number of cover stories for Lanvin Group depends on current market conditions and Lanvin Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lanvin Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lanvin Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lanvin Group Short Properties
Lanvin Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lanvin Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lanvin Group Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lanvin Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lanvin Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 117.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18 M |
Additional Tools for Lanvin Stock Analysis
When running Lanvin Group's price analysis, check to measure Lanvin Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lanvin Group is operating at the current time. Most of Lanvin Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lanvin Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lanvin Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lanvin Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.