LCI Industries Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

LCII Stock  USD 126.70  5.75  4.75%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LCI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 127.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.64. LCI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of LCI Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
The LCI Industries' current Inventory Turnover is estimated to increase to 4.47. The LCI Industries' current Payables Turnover is estimated to increase to 22.10. The LCI Industries' current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 476.9 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to under 23.9 M.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for LCI Industries works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

LCI Industries Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LCI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 127.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.16, mean absolute percentage error of 7.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.64.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LCI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LCI Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

LCI Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

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LCI Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting LCI Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LCI Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 125.69 and 129.72, respectively. We have considered LCI Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
126.70
125.69
Downside
127.71
Expected Value
129.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LCI Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LCI Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.464
MADMean absolute deviation2.1634
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0185
SAESum of the absolute errors127.6394
When LCI Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any LCI Industries trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent LCI Industries observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for LCI Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LCI Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
118.85120.87122.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
119.65121.67123.69
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
111.18116.27121.36
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
113.30124.50138.20
Details

Other Forecasting Options for LCI Industries

For every potential investor in LCI, whether a beginner or expert, LCI Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LCI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LCI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LCI Industries' price trends.

LCI Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LCI Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LCI Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LCI Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

LCI Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of LCI Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of LCI Industries' current price.

LCI Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LCI Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LCI Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LCI Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LCI Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

LCI Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of LCI Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LCI Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lci stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether LCI Industries offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of LCI Industries' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Lci Industries Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Lci Industries Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LCI Industries to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in LCI Stock please use our How to Invest in LCI Industries guide.
You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LCI Industries. If investors know LCI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LCI Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.363
Dividend Share
4.2
Earnings Share
5.13
Revenue Per Share
148.575
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.05)
The market value of LCI Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LCI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LCI Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LCI Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LCI Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LCI Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LCI Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LCI Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LCI Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.