LCI Industries Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LCII Stock | USD 146.69 2.69 1.80% |
LCI Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of LCI Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of LCI Industries' share price is above 70 as of 1st of February 2026. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling LCI, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using LCI Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LCI Industries from the perspective of LCI Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LCI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 146.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.81. LCI Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 146.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LCI Industries to cross-verify your projections. LCI Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LCI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LCI using various technical indicators. When you analyze LCI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LCI Industries Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LCI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 146.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.55, mean absolute percentage error of 6.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LCI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LCI Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LCI Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LCI Industries | LCI Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
LCI Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LCI Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LCI Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 144.77 and 148.61, respectively. We have considered LCI Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LCI Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LCI Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1272 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6818 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5468 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 92.81 |
Predictive Modules for LCI Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LCI Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.LCI Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LCI Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LCI Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LCI Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LCI Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LCI Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LCI Industries' historical news coverage. LCI Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 144.77 and 148.61, respectively. We have considered LCI Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LCI Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LCI Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
LCI Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LCI Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LCI Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LCI Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 1.92 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 20 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 20 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
146.69 | 146.69 | 0.00 |
|
LCI Industries Hype Timeline
LCI Industries is now traded for 146.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.18. LCI is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.55%. %. The volatility of related hype on LCI Industries is about 589.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 146.87. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of LCI Industries was now reported as 56.27. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.09. LCI Industries recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.16. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 8th of September 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 20 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LCI Industries to cross-verify your projections.LCI Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LCI Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LCI Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how LCI Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LCI Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PRKS | United Parks Resorts | 0.77 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.60 | (5.35) | 25.95 | |
| HOG | Harley Davidson | (0.90) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 2.41 | (3.31) | 8.88 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | (0.11) | 11 per month | 1.31 | 0.17 | 2.61 | (2.28) | 6.40 | |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear | 0.99 | 11 per month | 1.89 | (0.0002) | 3.71 | (3.26) | 10.24 | |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory | 0.77 | 5 per month | 1.58 | 0.16 | 4.01 | (2.59) | 8.66 | |
| ZGN | Ermenegildo Zegna NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.88 | (3.34) | 17.11 | |
| YETI | YETI Holdings | 1.41 | 11 per month | 1.63 | 0.15 | 4.49 | (3.10) | 12.03 | |
| TPH | TRI Pointe Homes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.05 | 5.16 | (2.65) | 11.56 | |
| HBI | Hanesbrands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.85 | (2.56) | 6.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for LCI Industries
For every potential investor in LCI, whether a beginner or expert, LCI Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LCI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LCI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LCI Industries' price trends.LCI Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LCI Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LCI Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LCI Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LCI Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LCI Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LCI Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LCI Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LCI Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0331 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.54) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 148.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 147.75 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 4.99 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.93) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.69) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 71.79 |
LCI Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of LCI Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LCI Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lci stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2116 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LCI Industries
The number of cover stories for LCI Industries depends on current market conditions and LCI Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LCI Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LCI Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
LCI Industries Short Properties
LCI Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when LCI Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LCI Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LCI Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LCI Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 165.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LCI Industries to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in LCI Stock please use our How to Invest in LCI Industries guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is there potential for Automotive Parts & Equipment market expansion? Will LCI introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LCI Industries. Expected growth trajectory for LCI significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about LCI Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
LCI Industries's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on LCI's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate LCI Industries' intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since LCI Industries' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that LCI Industries' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether LCI Industries represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, LCI Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.