Lennar Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| LEN Stock | USD 87.74 -2.80 -3.09% |
Lennar's Simple Regression forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Simple Regression model projects Lennar at 80.67 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Simple Regression output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Regression model forecasts Lennar at 80.67 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 5.75 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and sum of absolute errors of 356.65 .This indicates moderate forecast accuracy — the model captures the general trend but not all short-term variation in Lennar's price. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lennar | Lennar Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The projected range for Lennar reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The forecast band spans 78.29 to 83.06. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Regression model's error metrics for Lennar stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.6234 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.7524 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0598 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 356.6458 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lennar
Analyzing Lennar's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Lennar's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.Lennar Related Equities
These stocks within the Consumer Discretionary space are often compared to Lennar by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lennar Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Lennar, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Lennar.
Lennar Risk Indicators
Analyzing Lennar's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for lennar stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Lennar.
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Variance | 5.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Lennar Short Properties
Short-interest data for Lennar reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. When applied, these measures clarify when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 257.75 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 billion |