Lennar Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| LEN Stock | USD 119.40 5.32 4.66% |
Lennar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Lennar's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Lennar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lennar from the perspective of Lennar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Lennar on the next trading day is expected to be 120.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 324.51. Lennar after-hype prediction price | USD 118.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennar to cross-verify your projections. Lennar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lennar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lennar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lennar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lennar Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Lennar on the next trading day is expected to be 120.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.32, mean absolute percentage error of 41.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 324.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lennar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lennar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lennar Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lennar | Lennar Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lennar Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lennar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lennar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.57 and 122.95, respectively. We have considered Lennar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lennar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lennar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.8461 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.3199 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0462 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 324.5134 |
Predictive Modules for Lennar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lennar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lennar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lennar After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lennar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lennar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lennar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lennar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lennar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lennar's historical news coverage. Lennar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 115.45 and 120.73, respectively. We have considered Lennar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lennar is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lennar is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lennar Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lennar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lennar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lennar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
119.40 | 118.09 | 0.05 |
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Lennar Hype Timeline
On the 10th of February Lennar is traded for 119.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Lennar is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 118.09 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Lennar is about 89666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 119.40. The company reported the last year's revenue of 34.19 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.11 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 6.07 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennar to cross-verify your projections.Lennar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lennar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lennar's future price movements. Getting to know how Lennar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lennar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PHM | PulteGroup | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | 0.07 | 5.00 | (2.19) | 9.97 | |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.95 | 0.06 | 3.15 | (1.70) | 5.61 | |
| DHI | DR Horton | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.66 | 0.05 | 5.72 | (3.27) | 11.16 | |
| CUK | Carnival Plc ADS | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.74 | 0.13 | 7.92 | (3.21) | 21.35 | |
| STLA | Stellantis NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.66 | (4.22) | 30.62 | |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.03 | (2.17) | 11.90 | |
| TOL | Toll Brothers | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.13 | 0.10 | 4.26 | (2.37) | 10.06 | |
| ROL | Rollins | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | 0.08 | 1.51 | (1.40) | 6.01 | |
| GELHY | Geely Automobile Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.58 | (2.34) | 6.49 | |
| CCL | Carnival | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.06 | 0.09 | 8.08 | (3.47) | 13.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lennar
For every potential investor in Lennar, whether a beginner or expert, Lennar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lennar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lennar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lennar's price trends.Lennar Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lennar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lennar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lennar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lennar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lennar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lennar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lennar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lennar entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 109326.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.003774 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 117.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 118.07 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 4.66 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 5.32 |
Lennar Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lennar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lennar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lennar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.69 | |||
| Variance | 7.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lennar
The number of cover stories for Lennar depends on current market conditions and Lennar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lennar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lennar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lennar Short Properties
Lennar's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lennar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lennar often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lennar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lennar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 257.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennar to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Lennar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Lennar guide.You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Will Household Durables sector continue expanding? Could Lennar diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lennar. Expected growth trajectory for Lennar significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Lennar data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Lennar using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Lennar's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Lennar's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Lennar's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lennar represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Lennar's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.