Lennox International Stock Forward View - 8 Period Moving Average

Key Indicators . 8 Period Moving Average . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Lennox International
LII Stock  USD 521.25  -5.36  -1.02%   
8 Period Moving Average is applied to Lennox International's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The 8 Period Moving Average model projects Lennox International at 526.10 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This 8 Period Moving Average output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
The eight-period moving average forecast for Lennox International replaces each daily closing price with the mean of that value and the eight preceding observations. This wider window produces a smoother series that filters out short-term volatility.

8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average model forecasts Lennox International at 526.10 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 17.48 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 926.70 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Lennox International's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Lennox International  Lennox International Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast range for Lennox International defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The projected band runs from roughly 523.49 on the downside to about 528.70 on the upside. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Market Value
521.25
523.49
Downside
526.10
Expected Value
528.70
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 8 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Lennox International stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.6482
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 2.6108
MADMean absolute deviation17.4849
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0352
SAESum of the absolute errors926.7
The eight-period window effectively dampens daily peaks and troughs in Lennox International price data, making the underlying trend more visible. However, the model can only be used reliably for one or two periods ahead. A flat forecast line in a trending market indicates the smoothing window is too wide for the current price dynamics.

Other Forecasting Options for Lennox International

The distribution of Lennox International's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Lennox International's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Lennox International's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in Lennox.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Lennox International Related Equities

The stocks listed below are peers of Lennox International within the Industrials space and offer context for ranking and strength. Profit comparisons show whether Lennox International earns above or below average returns next to its peers. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Lennox International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Lennox International stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Lennox International. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating Lennox International sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in Lennox International.
Accumulation Distribution0.0245
Daily Balance Of Power-0.41
Rate Of Daily Change0.99
Day Median Price527.52
Day Typical Price525.43
Market Facilitation Index13.11
Price Action Indicator-8.95
Period Momentum Indicator-5.36
Relative Strength Index52.14

Lennox International Risk Indicators

Assessing Lennox International's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for lennox stock. The level of risk embedded in Lennox International's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing Lennox International's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.
Mean Deviation1.88
Semi Deviation2.6
Standard Deviation2.61
Variance6.82
Downside Variance6.93
Semi Variance6.74
Expected Short fall-2.14
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Lennox International Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Lennox International matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. When applied, these measures clarify when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding35.1 million
Cash And Short Term Investments34.7 million
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