Lennox International Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LII Stock | USD 493.06 5.57 1.14% |
Lennox Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lennox International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Lennox International's share price is approaching 45. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lennox International, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.045 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.3368 | EPS Estimate Current Year 22.8931 | EPS Estimate Next Year 24.5205 | Wall Street Target Price 571.8667 |
Using Lennox International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lennox International from the perspective of Lennox International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lennox International using Lennox International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lennox using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lennox International's stock price.
Lennox International Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lennox International's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lennox. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lennox International stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 545.6029 | Short Percent 0.0667 | Short Ratio 4.53 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.8 M | 50 Day MA 497.1166 |
Lennox Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lennox International on the next trading day is expected to be 489.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 419.97.Lennox International Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lennox International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lennox. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lennox can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lennox International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lennox International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lennox International.
Lennox International Implied Volatility | 0.45 |
Lennox International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lennox International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lennox International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lennox International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lennox International's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lennox International on the next trading day is expected to be 489.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 419.97. Lennox International after-hype prediction price | USD 487.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennox International to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lennox contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lennox International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Lennox International trading at USD 493.06, that is roughly USD 0.14 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lennox International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lennox International options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Lennox Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lennox International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lennox International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lennox International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lennox International's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lennox International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lennox International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lennox. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lennox International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lennox price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lennox using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lennox charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lennox International Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lennox International on the next trading day is expected to be 489.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.12, mean absolute percentage error of 81.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 419.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lennox Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lennox International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lennox International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lennox International | Lennox International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lennox International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lennox International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lennox International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 487.31 and 490.76, respectively. We have considered Lennox International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lennox International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lennox International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.8822 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.1181 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 419.9683 |
Predictive Modules for Lennox International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lennox International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lennox International After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lennox International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lennox International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lennox International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lennox International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lennox International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lennox International's historical news coverage. Lennox International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 486.17 and 489.63, respectively. We have considered Lennox International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lennox International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lennox International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lennox International Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lennox International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lennox International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lennox International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.73 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
493.06 | 487.90 | 0.08 |
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Lennox International Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Lennox International is traded for 493.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Lennox is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 487.9 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 16.76%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Lennox International is about 115.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 493.12. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.2 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 805.8 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.77 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennox International to cross-verify your projections.Lennox International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lennox International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lennox International's future price movements. Getting to know how Lennox International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lennox International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACM | Aecom Technology | (0.97) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 1.46 | (2.59) | 12.17 | |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | (7.90) | 8 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 4.11 | (2.75) | 8.62 | |
| SNA | Snap On | 3.85 | 6 per month | 0.80 | 0.04 | 1.94 | (1.45) | 3.63 | |
| PNR | Pentair PLC | (0.44) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.77 | (2.39) | 7.55 | |
| MAS | Masco | 3.48 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.51 | (2.29) | 7.82 | |
| EXPD | Expeditors International of | (0.59) | 10 per month | 0.62 | 0.22 | 2.46 | (1.63) | 13.29 | |
| BLDR | Builders FirstSource | 6.79 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.94 | (3.40) | 15.38 | |
| WSO | Watsco Inc | 8.49 | 10 per month | 1.41 | 0.03 | 4.05 | (2.21) | 7.55 | |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | (0.75) | 12 per month | 0.51 | 0.20 | 2.87 | (1.70) | 22.91 | |
| FTAI | FTAI Aviation | 3.04 | 10 per month | 2.82 | 0.18 | 6.86 | (4.53) | 17.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lennox International
For every potential investor in Lennox, whether a beginner or expert, Lennox International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lennox Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lennox. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lennox International's price trends.Lennox International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lennox International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lennox International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lennox International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lennox International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lennox International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lennox International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lennox International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lennox International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lennox International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lennox International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lennox International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lennox stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Variance | 2.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lennox International
The number of cover stories for Lennox International depends on current market conditions and Lennox International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lennox International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lennox International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennox International to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Lennox Stock please use our How to Invest in Lennox International guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is there potential for Building Products market expansion? Will Lennox introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lennox International. Expected growth trajectory for Lennox significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Lennox International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.045 | Dividend Share 4.9 | Earnings Share 23.69 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
Lennox International's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Lennox's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Lennox International's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since Lennox International's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Lennox International's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lennox International represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Lennox International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.