Logansport Financial OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

LOGN Stock  USD 32.00  0.49  1.56%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Logansport Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.76. Logansport OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Logansport Financial's share price is at 51. This indicates that the otc stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Logansport Financial, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 51

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Logansport Financial Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Logansport Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Logansport Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Logansport Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Logansport Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Logansport Financial Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Logansport Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Logansport Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Logansport Financial Corp from the perspective of Logansport Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Logansport Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.76.

Logansport Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 32.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Logansport Financial to cross-verify your projections.

Logansport Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Logansport price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Logansport using various technical indicators. When you analyze Logansport charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Logansport Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Logansport Financial Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Logansport Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Logansport Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Logansport OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Logansport Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Logansport Financial OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Logansport FinancialLogansport Financial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Logansport Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Logansport Financial's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Logansport Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.31 and 33.74, respectively. We have considered Logansport Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
32.00
32.53
Expected Value
33.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Logansport Financial otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Logansport Financial otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5192
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.367
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0117
SAESum of the absolute errors22.7563
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Logansport Financial Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Logansport Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Logansport Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Logansport Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
30.7832.0033.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.5631.7833.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.9932.5734.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Logansport Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Logansport Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Logansport Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Logansport Financial Corp.

Logansport Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Logansport Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Logansport Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Logansport Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Logansport Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Logansport Financial's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Logansport Financial's historical news coverage. Logansport Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.78 and 33.22, respectively. We have considered Logansport Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
32.00
32.00
After-hype Price
33.22
Upside
Logansport Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Logansport Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Logansport Financial OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Logansport Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Logansport Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Logansport Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14 
1.22
 0.00  
  0.08 
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
32.00
32.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Logansport Financial Hype Timeline

Logansport Financial Corp is now traded for 32.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.08. Logansport is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Logansport Financial is about 219.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.92. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.84. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Logansport Financial Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.26. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of December 2022. The firm had 125:100 split on the 14th of April 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Logansport Financial to cross-verify your projections.

Logansport Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Logansport Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Logansport Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Logansport Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Logansport Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
WTMWhite Mountains Insurance(23.27)10 per month 0.65  0.02  1.39 (1.26) 8.03 
OALCUnified Series Trust(0.12)1 per month 0.86 (0.04) 1.07 (1.42) 3.40 
444859BR2HUMANA INC 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 1.19 (2.51) 12.88 
SCRYXSmall Cap Core 17.89 1 per month 0.71  0.12  2.15 (1.51) 14.85 
ABHYXHigh Yield Municipal Fund 0.00 1 per month 0.00 (0.62) 0.23 (0.23) 0.92 
MSTSXMorningstar Unconstrained Allocation 0.00 0 per month 0.37  0.07  0.93 (1.09) 12.28 
VIASPVia Renewables 0.00 0 per month 0.25 (0.06) 0.93 (0.64) 2.46 
EPASXEp Emerging Markets 0.00 0 per month 0.41 (0.01) 1.39 (0.78) 3.02 
FGROFidelity Growth Opportunities(0.18)2 per month 17.20  0.17  1.35 (1.60) 5,625 
ANTMXNt International Small Mid 0.13 1 per month 0.77  0.07  1.40 (1.43) 3.31 

Other Forecasting Options for Logansport Financial

For every potential investor in Logansport, whether a beginner or expert, Logansport Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Logansport OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Logansport. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Logansport Financial's price trends.

Logansport Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Logansport Financial otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Logansport Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Logansport Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Logansport Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Logansport Financial otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Logansport Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Logansport Financial otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Logansport Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Logansport Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Logansport Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Logansport Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting logansport otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Logansport Financial

The number of cover stories for Logansport Financial depends on current market conditions and Logansport Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Logansport Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Logansport Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Logansport OTC Stock

Logansport Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Logansport OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Logansport with respect to the benefits of owning Logansport Financial security.