Lightspeed Commerce Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| LSPD Stock | USD 10.80 0.27 2.44% |
Lightspeed Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lightspeed Commerce stock prices and determine the direction of Lightspeed Commerce's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lightspeed Commerce's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of Lightspeed Commerce's share price is approaching 40. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lightspeed Commerce, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1319 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.484 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6973 | Wall Street Target Price 14.3571 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.1247 |
Using Lightspeed Commerce hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lightspeed Commerce from the perspective of Lightspeed Commerce response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lightspeed Commerce using Lightspeed Commerce's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lightspeed using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lightspeed Commerce's stock price.
Lightspeed Commerce Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lightspeed Commerce's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lightspeed. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lightspeed Commerce stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.6107 | Short Percent 0.0257 | Short Ratio 6.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 3 M | 50 Day MA 11.7068 |
Lightspeed Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Lightspeed Commerce on the next trading day is expected to be 11.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.96.Lightspeed Commerce Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lightspeed Commerce's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lightspeed. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lightspeed can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lightspeed Commerce. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lightspeed Commerce's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lightspeed Commerce.
Lightspeed Commerce Implied Volatility | 0.6 |
Lightspeed Commerce's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lightspeed Commerce stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lightspeed Commerce's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lightspeed Commerce stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lightspeed Commerce's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Lightspeed Commerce on the next trading day is expected to be 11.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.96. Lightspeed Commerce after-hype prediction price | USD 10.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lightspeed contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lightspeed Commerce will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0375% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Lightspeed Commerce trading at USD 10.8, that is roughly USD 0.00405 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lightspeed Commerce's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lightspeed Commerce options at the current volatility level of 0.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Lightspeed Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lightspeed Commerce's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lightspeed Commerce's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lightspeed Commerce stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lightspeed Commerce's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lightspeed Commerce's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lightspeed Commerce is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lightspeed. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lightspeed Commerce Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lightspeed price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lightspeed using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lightspeed charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lightspeed Commerce Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Lightspeed Commerce on the next trading day is expected to be 11.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lightspeed Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lightspeed Commerce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lightspeed Commerce Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lightspeed Commerce | Lightspeed Commerce Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lightspeed Commerce Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lightspeed Commerce's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lightspeed Commerce's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.43 and 14.63, respectively. We have considered Lightspeed Commerce's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lightspeed Commerce stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lightspeed Commerce stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9186 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4993 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0423 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.9578 |
Predictive Modules for Lightspeed Commerce
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lightspeed Commerce. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lightspeed Commerce After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lightspeed Commerce at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lightspeed Commerce or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lightspeed Commerce, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lightspeed Commerce Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lightspeed Commerce's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lightspeed Commerce's historical news coverage. Lightspeed Commerce's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.68 and 13.88, respectively. We have considered Lightspeed Commerce's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lightspeed Commerce is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lightspeed Commerce is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lightspeed Commerce Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lightspeed Commerce is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lightspeed Commerce backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lightspeed Commerce, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 3.10 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.80 | 10.78 | 0.19 |
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Lightspeed Commerce Hype Timeline
Lightspeed Commerce is now traded for 10.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Lightspeed is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.78. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Lightspeed Commerce is about 2262.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.78. About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.02. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lightspeed Commerce recorded a loss per share of 4.51. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lightspeed Commerce to cross-verify your projections.Lightspeed Commerce Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lightspeed Commerce's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lightspeed Commerce's future price movements. Getting to know how Lightspeed Commerce's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lightspeed Commerce may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ALIT | Alight Inc | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 4.40 | (6.25) | 15.07 | |
| KARO | Karooooo | (2.19) | 7 per month | 1.57 | 0.03 | 5.56 | (2.84) | 10.32 | |
| PAR | PAR Technology | 0.99 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.68 | (5.66) | 27.57 | |
| KDK | Kodiak AI Common | 0.1 | 11 per month | 4.94 | 0.07 | 8.29 | (7.72) | 25.80 | |
| PRCH | Porch Group | (0.54) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.22 | (6.15) | 42.64 | |
| MLNK | Meridianlink | (0.01) | 5 per month | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1.15 | (0.96) | 25.01 | |
| PD | Pagerduty | 0.33 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.09 | (5.08) | 25.87 | |
| AMPL | Amplitude | (0.41) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.19 | (4.53) | 14.37 | |
| RZLV | Rezolve AI Limited | 0.47 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 14.04 | (9.73) | 51.01 | |
| DV | DoubleVerify Holdings | (0.14) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.14 | (3.40) | 15.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lightspeed Commerce
For every potential investor in Lightspeed, whether a beginner or expert, Lightspeed Commerce's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lightspeed Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lightspeed. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lightspeed Commerce's price trends.Lightspeed Commerce Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lightspeed Commerce stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lightspeed Commerce could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lightspeed Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lightspeed Commerce Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lightspeed Commerce stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lightspeed Commerce shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lightspeed Commerce stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lightspeed Commerce entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lightspeed Commerce Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lightspeed Commerce's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lightspeed Commerce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lightspeed stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Variance | 9.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lightspeed Commerce
The number of cover stories for Lightspeed Commerce depends on current market conditions and Lightspeed Commerce's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lightspeed Commerce is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lightspeed Commerce's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lightspeed Commerce Short Properties
Lightspeed Commerce's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lightspeed Commerce's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lightspeed Commerce often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lightspeed Commerce's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lightspeed Commerce's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 153.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 558.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lightspeed Commerce to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lightspeed Stock refer to our How to Trade Lightspeed Stock guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Will Systems Software sector continue expanding? Could Lightspeed diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lightspeed Commerce. Expected growth trajectory for Lightspeed significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Lightspeed Commerce data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (4.51) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.151 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Lightspeed Commerce is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lightspeed that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lightspeed Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lightspeed Commerce's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Lightspeed Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lightspeed Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Lightspeed Commerce's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lightspeed Commerce represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Lightspeed Commerce's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.