Southwest Airlines Stock Forward View
| LUV Stock | USD 47.52 0.98 2.02% |
Southwest Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Southwest Airlines' share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Southwest, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.47 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.317 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.8894 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.4529 | Wall Street Target Price 45.6044 |
Using Southwest Airlines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Southwest Airlines from the perspective of Southwest Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Southwest Airlines using Southwest Airlines' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Southwest using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Southwest Airlines' stock price.
Southwest Airlines Short Interest
An investor who is long Southwest Airlines may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Southwest Airlines and may potentially protect profits, hedge Southwest Airlines with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 33.9153 | Short Percent 0.0496 | Short Ratio 2.46 | Shares Short Prior Month 25.8 M | 50 Day MA 40.0372 |
Southwest Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southwest Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 49.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.97.Southwest Airlines Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Southwest Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Southwest. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Southwest can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Southwest Airlines. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Southwest Airlines' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines Implied Volatility | 0.73 |
Southwest Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Southwest Airlines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Southwest Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Southwest Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when Southwest Airlines' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southwest Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 49.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.97. Southwest Airlines after-hype prediction price | USD 47.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Southwest | Build AI portfolio with Southwest Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Southwest contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Southwest Airlines will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0456% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Southwest Airlines trading at USD 47.52, that is roughly USD 0.0217 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Southwest Airlines' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Southwest Airlines options at the current volatility level of 0.73%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Southwest Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Southwest Airlines' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Southwest Airlines' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Southwest Airlines stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Southwest Airlines' open interest, investors have to compare it to Southwest Airlines' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Southwest Airlines is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Southwest. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Southwest Airlines Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Southwest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Southwest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Southwest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Southwest Airlines' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 2.9 B | Current Value 3.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 3.3 B |
Southwest Airlines Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southwest Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 49.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southwest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southwest Airlines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southwest Airlines Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Southwest Airlines | Southwest Airlines Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Southwest Airlines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southwest Airlines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southwest Airlines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.24 and 52.44, respectively. We have considered Southwest Airlines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southwest Airlines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southwest Airlines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3732 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8848 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.9717 |
Predictive Modules for Southwest Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southwest Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southwest Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Southwest Airlines After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Southwest Airlines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Southwest Airlines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Southwest Airlines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Southwest Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Southwest Airlines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Southwest Airlines' historical news coverage. Southwest Airlines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.53 and 50.73, respectively. We have considered Southwest Airlines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Southwest Airlines is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Southwest Airlines is based on 3 months time horizon.
Southwest Airlines Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Southwest Airlines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Southwest Airlines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Southwest Airlines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.77 | 3.10 | 0.11 | 0.50 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
47.52 | 47.63 | 0.23 |
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Southwest Airlines Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Southwest Airlines is traded for 47.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.5. Southwest is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 47.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.77%. The volatility of related hype on Southwest Airlines is about 474.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.02. The company reported the last year's revenue of 28.06 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 441 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 6.51 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southwest Airlines to cross-verify your projections.Southwest Airlines Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Southwest Airlines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Southwest Airlines' future price movements. Getting to know how Southwest Airlines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Southwest Airlines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ULS | UL Solutions | (1.23) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.60 | (3.28) | 21.27 | |
| MTZ | MasTec Inc | (3.70) | 7 per month | 2.43 | 0.07 | 4.38 | (4.58) | 13.07 | |
| LTM | LATAM Airlines Group | 0.99 | 12 per month | 1.09 | 0.33 | 3.92 | (2.24) | 8.49 | |
| WWD | Woodward | (4.92) | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.11 | 3.42 | (2.14) | 16.03 | |
| XPO | XPO Logistics | 0.14 | 7 per month | 2.07 | 0.09 | 5.39 | (3.88) | 14.63 | |
| TRU | TransUnion | (1.06) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.72 | (3.03) | 9.21 | |
| JOBY | Joby Aviation | (0.64) | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 6.27 | (6.65) | 28.38 | |
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport | 1.00 | 10 per month | 0.84 | 0.17 | 3.32 | (1.54) | 6.61 | |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology | 2.90 | 10 per month | 2.47 | (0.01) | 4.36 | (4.98) | 13.86 | |
| ZTO | ZTO Express | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.98 | 0.11 | 2.73 | (1.81) | 7.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Southwest Airlines
For every potential investor in Southwest, whether a beginner or expert, Southwest Airlines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southwest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southwest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southwest Airlines' price trends.Southwest Airlines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southwest Airlines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southwest Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southwest Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southwest Airlines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southwest Airlines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southwest Airlines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southwest Airlines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southwest Airlines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Southwest Airlines Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southwest Airlines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southwest Airlines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southwest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.07 | |||
| Variance | 9.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Southwest Airlines
The number of cover stories for Southwest Airlines depends on current market conditions and Southwest Airlines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Southwest Airlines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Southwest Airlines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Southwest Airlines Short Properties
Southwest Airlines' future price predictability will typically decrease when Southwest Airlines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Southwest Airlines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Southwest Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southwest Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 558 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.2 B |
Additional Tools for Southwest Stock Analysis
When running Southwest Airlines' price analysis, check to measure Southwest Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southwest Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of Southwest Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southwest Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southwest Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southwest Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.