Macys Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| M Stock | USD 20.01 0.37 1.82% |
Macys Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Macys' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Macys' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Macys fundamentals over time.
As of now, the value of RSI of Macys' share price is approaching 42. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Macys, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1882 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.2134 | Wall Street Target Price 21.9 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.13) |
Using Macys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Macys Inc from the perspective of Macys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Macys using Macys' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Macys using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Macys' stock price.
Macys Short Interest
An investor who is long Macys may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Macys and may potentially protect profits, hedge Macys with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 16.077 | Short Percent 0.0807 | Short Ratio 2.47 | Shares Short Prior Month 18.9 M | 50 Day MA 21.9592 |
Macys Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 19.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.10.Macys Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Macys' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Macys. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Macys can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Macys Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Macys' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Macys.
Macys Implied Volatility | 0.79 |
Macys' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Macys Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Macys' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Macys stock will not fluctuate a lot when Macys' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 19.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.10. Macys after-hype prediction price | USD 20.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macys to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Macys contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Macys Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0494% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Macys trading at USD 20.01, that is roughly USD 0.00988 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Macys' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Macys Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Macys Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Macys' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Macys' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Macys stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Macys' open interest, investors have to compare it to Macys' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Macys is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Macys. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Macys Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Macys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Macys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Macys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Macys Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 19.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Macys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Macys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Macys Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Macys | Macys Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Macys Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Macys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Macys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.29 and 22.62, respectively. We have considered Macys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Macys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Macys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0613 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4255 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.105 |
Predictive Modules for Macys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macys Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Macys After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Macys at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Macys or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Macys, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Macys Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Macys' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Macys' historical news coverage. Macys' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.77 and 23.11, respectively. We have considered Macys' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Macys is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Macys Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Macys Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Macys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Macys backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Macys, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.67 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 15 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.01 | 20.44 | 0.29 |
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Macys Hype Timeline
As of January 28, 2026 Macys Inc is listed for 20.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Macys is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.44 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Macys is about 454.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.94. The company reported the annual revenue of 23.01 B. Net Income to common stockholders was 582 M with gross profit before all taxes, overhead, and interest of 9.17 B. Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macys to cross-verify your projections.Macys Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Macys' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Macys' future price movements. Getting to know how Macys' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Macys may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| URBN | Urban Outfitters | (1.37) | 9 per month | 3.12 | 0.01 | 5.28 | (4.20) | 25.85 | |
| BBWI | Bath Body Works | (0.83) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.78 | (4.50) | 28.56 | |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | (0.43) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.58 | (2.66) | 6.35 | |
| GNTX | Gentex | 0.27 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.63 | (2.24) | 10.62 | |
| REYN | Reynolds Consumer Products | 0.02 | 10 per month | 1.27 | (0.05) | 2.08 | (1.70) | 9.71 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | (1.48) | 10 per month | 1.25 | 0.13 | 3.50 | (2.18) | 8.69 | |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels Resorts | (1.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.15 | (3.12) | 8.27 | |
| LTH | Life Time Group | (0.98) | 9 per month | 1.67 | 0.06 | 3.90 | (3.10) | 9.67 | |
| MTN | Vail Resorts | (0.06) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.44 | (3.39) | 13.29 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.36 | (0.03) | 3.92 | (2.69) | 10.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Macys
For every potential investor in Macys, whether a beginner or expert, Macys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Macys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Macys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Macys' price trends.Macys Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Macys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Macys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Macys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Macys Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Macys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Macys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Macys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Macys Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.01 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 20.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.18) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.37) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.69 |
Macys Risk Indicators
The analysis of Macys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Macys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting macys stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Variance | 6.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Macys
The number of cover stories for Macys depends on current market conditions and Macys' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Macys is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Macys' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Macys Short Properties
Macys' future price predictability will typically decrease when Macys' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Macys Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Macys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Macys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 281.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macys to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Macys. If investors know Macys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Macys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | Dividend Share 0.721 | Earnings Share 1.7 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.002 |
The market value of Macys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Macys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Macys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Macys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Macys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Macys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Macys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Macys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Macys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.