Moodys Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MCO Stock | USD 531.17 0.27 0.05% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moodys on the next trading day is expected to be 532.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 347.63. Moodys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Moodys' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Moodys' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Moodys fundamentals over time.
The RSI of Moodys' stock price is about 63. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Moodys, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.229 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.0703 | EPS Estimate Current Year 14.7006 | EPS Estimate Next Year 16.4217 | Wall Street Target Price 560 |
Using Moodys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Moodys from the perspective of Moodys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Moodys using Moodys' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Moodys using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Moodys' stock price.
Moodys Short Interest
An investor who is long Moodys may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Moodys and may potentially protect profits, hedge Moodys with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 485.538 | Short Percent 0.0153 | Short Ratio 2.96 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.8 M | 50 Day MA 493.0942 |
Moodys Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Moodys' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Moodys. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Moodys can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Moodys. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Moodys' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Moodys.
Moodys Implied Volatility | 0.24 |
Moodys' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Moodys stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Moodys' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Moodys stock will not fluctuate a lot when Moodys' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moodys on the next trading day is expected to be 532.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 347.63. Moodys after-hype prediction price | USD 530.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moodys to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Moodys Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Moodys' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Moodys' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Moodys stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Moodys' open interest, investors have to compare it to Moodys' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Moodys is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Moodys. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Moodys Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Moodys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Moodys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Moodys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Moodys Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Moodys' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1998-06-30 | Previous Quarter 2.2 B | Current Value 2.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 856.9 M |
Moodys Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moodys on the next trading day is expected to be 532.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.70, mean absolute percentage error of 47.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 347.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moodys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moodys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Moodys Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Moodys | Moodys Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Moodys Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Moodys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moodys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 531.52 and 534.33, respectively. We have considered Moodys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moodys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moodys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.9726 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.6988 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 347.6294 |
Predictive Modules for Moodys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moodys. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moodys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Moodys
For every potential investor in Moodys, whether a beginner or expert, Moodys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moodys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moodys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moodys' price trends.Moodys Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moodys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moodys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moodys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Moodys Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moodys' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moodys' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Moodys Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moodys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moodys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moodys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moodys entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 531.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 531.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.27) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 63.12 |
Moodys Risk Indicators
The analysis of Moodys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moodys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moodys stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 2.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Moodys
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Moodys position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Moodys will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Moodys Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Moodys could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Moodys when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Moodys - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Moodys to buy it.
The correlation of Moodys is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Moodys moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Moodys moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Moodys can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moodys to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Moodys Stock, please use our How to Invest in Moodys guide.You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Financial Exchanges & Data space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moodys. If investors know Moodys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moodys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.229 | Dividend Share 3.67 | Earnings Share 12.43 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.107 |
The market value of Moodys is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moodys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moodys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moodys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moodys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moodys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moodys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moodys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moodys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.