Moodys Stock Forward View
| MCO Stock | USD 447.82 1.47 0.33% |
Moodys Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Moodys' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Moodys' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Moodys fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Moodys' share price is approaching 42. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Moodys, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.574 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.2269 | EPS Estimate Current Year 16.6031 | EPS Estimate Next Year 18.6761 | Wall Street Target Price 556.9 |
Using Moodys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Moodys from the perspective of Moodys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Moodys using Moodys' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Moodys using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Moodys' stock price.
Moodys Short Interest
An investor who is long Moodys may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Moodys and may potentially protect profits, hedge Moodys with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 492.9047 | Short Percent 0.0137 | Short Ratio 2.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.1 M | 50 Day MA 499.9884 |
Moodys Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moodys on the next trading day is expected to be 473.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 424.53.Moodys Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Moodys' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Moodys. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Moodys can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Moodys. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Moodys' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Moodys.
Moodys Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
Moodys' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Moodys stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Moodys' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Moodys stock will not fluctuate a lot when Moodys' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moodys on the next trading day is expected to be 473.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 424.53. Moodys after-hype prediction price | USD 448.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moodys to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Moodys contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Moodys will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Moodys trading at USD 447.82, that is roughly USD 0.11 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Moodys' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Moodys options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Moodys Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Moodys' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Moodys' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Moodys stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Moodys' open interest, investors have to compare it to Moodys' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Moodys is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Moodys. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Moodys Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Moodys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Moodys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Moodys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Moodys Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Moodys' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1998-06-30 | Previous Quarter 2.2 B | Current Value 2.4 B | Quarterly Volatility 861.8 M |
Moodys Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moodys on the next trading day is expected to be 473.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.85, mean absolute percentage error of 94.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 424.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moodys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moodys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Moodys Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Moodys | Moodys Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Moodys Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Moodys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moodys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 471.09 and 475.36, respectively. We have considered Moodys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moodys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moodys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.4951 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.8473 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 424.5301 |
Predictive Modules for Moodys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moodys. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moodys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Moodys After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Moodys at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Moodys or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Moodys, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Moodys Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Moodys' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Moodys' historical news coverage. Moodys' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 446.61 and 450.87, respectively. We have considered Moodys' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Moodys is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Moodys is based on 3 months time horizon.
Moodys Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Moodys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Moodys backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Moodys, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.13 | 0.92 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
447.82 | 448.74 | 0.21 |
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Moodys Hype Timeline
On the 21st of February Moodys is traded for 447.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.92, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Moodys is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 448.74 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 20.9%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Moodys is about 1638.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 447.81. The company reported the last year's revenue of 7.72 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.46 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.74 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moodys to cross-verify your projections.Moodys Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Moodys' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Moodys' future price movements. Getting to know how Moodys' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Moodys may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | 0.31 | 9 per month | 2.15 | (0.02) | 2.09 | (2.46) | 11.53 | |
| COIN | Coinbase Global | 10.62 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.47 | (7.06) | 21.12 | |
| CME | CME Group | (0.69) | 7 per month | 1.07 | 0.04 | 1.99 | (2.07) | 5.09 | |
| BAM | Brookfield Asset Management | (1.01) | 10 per month | 2.27 | (0.04) | 2.43 | (4.19) | 9.20 | |
| MMC | Marsh McLennan Companies | (1.91) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.97 | (1.64) | 9.33 | |
| MFG | Mizuho Financial Group | (0.11) | 7 per month | 1.64 | 0.19 | 2.99 | (3.12) | 12.43 | |
| BMO | Bank of Montreal | (3.02) | 7 per month | 1.13 | 0.15 | 2.12 | (1.62) | 6.14 | |
| BNS | Bank of Nova | (0.89) | 8 per month | 0.91 | 0.14 | 1.69 | (1.75) | 6.23 | |
| NU | Nu Holdings | (0.50) | 8 per month | 2.14 | 0.05 | 3.85 | (2.82) | 11.48 | |
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | (4.10) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.18 | (2.21) | 13.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for Moodys
For every potential investor in Moodys, whether a beginner or expert, Moodys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moodys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moodys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moodys' price trends.Moodys Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moodys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moodys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moodys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Moodys Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moodys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moodys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moodys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moodys entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 23563.3 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.15) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 446.93 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 447.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.15 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.47) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.45 |
Moodys Risk Indicators
The analysis of Moodys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moodys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moodys stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.2 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Moodys
The number of cover stories for Moodys depends on current market conditions and Moodys' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Moodys is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Moodys' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Moodys Short Properties
Moodys' future price predictability will typically decrease when Moodys' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Moodys often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Moodys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moodys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 179.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.4 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moodys to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Moodys Stock, please use our How to Invest in Moodys guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Will Financial Exchanges & Data sector continue expanding? Could Moodys diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moodys. Expected growth trajectory for Moodys significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Moodys data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.574 | Earnings Share 12.45 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.13 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Moodys requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Moodys's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Moodys' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Moodys' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Moodys' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Moodys represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Moodys' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.