Mercury General Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MCY Stock | USD 85.30 0.09 0.11% |
Mercury Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Mercury General's share price is approaching 45. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mercury General, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Mercury General hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mercury General from the perspective of Mercury General response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mercury General on the next trading day is expected to be 84.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.16. Mercury General after-hype prediction price | USD 85.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercury General to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Mercury Stock please use our How to Invest in Mercury General guide.Mercury General Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mercury price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mercury using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mercury charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mercury General Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mercury General on the next trading day is expected to be 84.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 2.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mercury Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mercury General's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mercury General Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mercury General | Mercury General Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mercury General Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mercury General's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mercury General's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.35 and 86.17, respectively. We have considered Mercury General's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mercury General stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mercury General stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9165 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2157 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 74.157 |
Predictive Modules for Mercury General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercury General. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercury General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercury General After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mercury General at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mercury General or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mercury General, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mercury General Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mercury General's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mercury General's historical news coverage. Mercury General's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 83.89 and 86.71, respectively. We have considered Mercury General's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mercury General is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mercury General is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mercury General Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mercury General is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mercury General backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mercury General, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
85.30 | 85.30 | 0.00 |
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Mercury General Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Mercury General is traded for 85.30. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Mercury is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mercury General is about 47000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 85.30. About 52.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Mercury General was now reported as 40.3. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.19. Mercury General recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.93. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of October 1997. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercury General to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Mercury Stock please use our How to Invest in Mercury General guide.Mercury General Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mercury General's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mercury General's future price movements. Getting to know how Mercury General's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mercury General may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.99 | 0.04 | 1.95 | (1.57) | 5.53 | |
| IBOC | International Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.48 | (0) | 2.75 | (2.10) | 9.51 | |
| LMND | Lemonade | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.30 | 0.13 | 8.61 | (5.07) | 43.33 | |
| AB | AllianceBernstein Holding LP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.05 | 2.52 | (1.94) | 6.44 | |
| AHL | Aspen Insurance Holdings | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 0.22 | (0.19) | 0.76 | |
| HGTY | Hagerty | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | 0.07 | 3.27 | (2.16) | 9.86 | |
| WBS | Webster Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.12 | 0.11 | 2.80 | (1.77) | 7.21 | |
| FG | FG Annuities Life | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.28 | (0.03) | 3.02 | (3.36) | 11.40 | |
| AX | Axos Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.45 | 0.11 | 3.18 | (2.60) | 8.23 | |
| WTM | White Mountains Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.63 | 0.04 | 1.27 | (1.23) | 8.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mercury General
For every potential investor in Mercury, whether a beginner or expert, Mercury General's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mercury Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mercury. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mercury General's price trends.Mercury General Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mercury General stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mercury General could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mercury General by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mercury General Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mercury General stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mercury General shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mercury General stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mercury General entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mercury General Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mercury General's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mercury General's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mercury stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 1.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mercury General
The number of cover stories for Mercury General depends on current market conditions and Mercury General's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mercury General is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mercury General's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mercury General Short Properties
Mercury General's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mercury General's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mercury General often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mercury General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercury General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Additional Tools for Mercury Stock Analysis
When running Mercury General's price analysis, check to measure Mercury General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercury General is operating at the current time. Most of Mercury General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercury General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercury General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercury General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.