Hagerty Stock Price Prediction
| HGTY Stock | USD 9.77 0.03 0.31% |
Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0567 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.3233 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4267 | Wall Street Target Price 11 |
Using Hagerty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hagerty from the perspective of Hagerty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hagerty using Hagerty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hagerty using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hagerty's stock price.
Hagerty Short Interest
An investor who is long Hagerty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Hagerty and may potentially protect profits, hedge Hagerty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.5523 | Short Percent 0.0107 | Short Ratio 7.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 320.5 K | 50 Day MA 9.8916 |
Hagerty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Hagerty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hagerty. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hagerty can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hagerty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hagerty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hagerty.
Hagerty Implied Volatility | 1.0 |
Hagerty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hagerty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hagerty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hagerty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hagerty's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Hagerty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Hagerty because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Hagerty after-hype prediction price | USD 9.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hagerty contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Hagerty will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0625% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Hagerty trading at USD 9.77, that is roughly USD 0.006106 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hagerty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Hagerty options at the current volatility level of 1.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Hagerty |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hagerty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hagerty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hagerty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hagerty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hagerty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hagerty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hagerty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hagerty's historical news coverage. Hagerty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.45 and 11.07, respectively. We have considered Hagerty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hagerty is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hagerty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hagerty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hagerty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hagerty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hagerty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.31 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 13 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.77 | 9.76 | 0.10 |
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Hagerty Hype Timeline
Hagerty is currently traded for 9.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Hagerty is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 9.76. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Hagerty is about 421.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.70. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Hagerty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Hagerty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hagerty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hagerty's future price movements. Getting to know how Hagerty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hagerty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | (0.95) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.50 | (2.27) | 15.02 | |
| KMPR | Kemper | (0.68) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 2.12 | (3.04) | 7.37 | |
| DGICB | Donegal Group B | (1.10) | 7 per month | 2.48 | 0.08 | 5.68 | (5.43) | 15.20 | |
| ARGO-PA | Argo Group International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.28 | (0.24) | 1.07 | |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity PLC | 0.00 | 7 per month | 1.65 | 0.04 | 3.99 | (2.92) | 9.43 | |
| NODK | NI Holdings | 0.18 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.15 | (2.23) | 7.59 | |
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators | 0.40 | 10 per month | 1.80 | 0.05 | 2.10 | (3.10) | 9.56 | |
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | (0.02) | 10 per month | 1.00 | 0.17 | 2.44 | (1.98) | 6.12 | |
| SIGIP | Selective Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 2.12 | (1.56) | 4.72 | |
| UFCS | United Fire Group | (0.94) | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 3.22 | (3.67) | 8.16 |
Hagerty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hagerty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hagerty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hagerty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Hagerty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Hagerty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Hagerty, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Hagerty based on analysis of Hagerty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Hagerty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Hagerty's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00663 | 0.005967 | 0.004023 |
| Price To Sales Ratio | 0.84 | 0.7 | 0.67 |
Story Coverage note for Hagerty
The number of cover stories for Hagerty depends on current market conditions and Hagerty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hagerty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hagerty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hagerty Short Properties
Hagerty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hagerty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hagerty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hagerty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hagerty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 88.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 232.8 M |
Additional Tools for Hagerty Stock Analysis
When running Hagerty's price analysis, check to measure Hagerty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hagerty is operating at the current time. Most of Hagerty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hagerty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hagerty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hagerty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.