MEDIFAST INC Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| MED Stock | USD 11.91 0.21 1.79% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of MEDIFAST INC on the next trading day is expected to be 11.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.33. MEDIFAST Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MEDIFAST INC stock prices and determine the direction of MEDIFAST INC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MEDIFAST INC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of MEDIFAST INC's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.87) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.45) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.12) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.61) | Wall Street Target Price 15 |
Using MEDIFAST INC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MEDIFAST INC from the perspective of MEDIFAST INC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MEDIFAST INC using MEDIFAST INC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MEDIFAST using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MEDIFAST INC's stock price.
MEDIFAST INC Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in MEDIFAST INC's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards MEDIFAST. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of MEDIFAST INC stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 12.9112 | Short Percent 0.1844 | Short Ratio 6.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 11.2934 |
MEDIFAST INC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MEDIFAST INC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MEDIFAST. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MEDIFAST can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MEDIFAST INC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
MEDIFAST INC Implied Volatility | 0.87 |
MEDIFAST INC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MEDIFAST INC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MEDIFAST INC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MEDIFAST INC stock will not fluctuate a lot when MEDIFAST INC's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of MEDIFAST INC on the next trading day is expected to be 11.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.33. MEDIFAST INC after-hype prediction price | USD 11.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MEDIFAST INC to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MEDIFAST contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MEDIFAST INC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0544% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With MEDIFAST INC trading at USD 11.91, that is roughly USD 0.006476 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MEDIFAST INC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MEDIFAST INC options at the current volatility level of 0.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 MEDIFAST Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MEDIFAST INC's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MEDIFAST INC's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MEDIFAST INC stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MEDIFAST INC's open interest, investors have to compare it to MEDIFAST INC's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MEDIFAST INC is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MEDIFAST. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MEDIFAST INC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MEDIFAST price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MEDIFAST using various technical indicators. When you analyze MEDIFAST charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MEDIFAST INC Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of MEDIFAST INC on the next trading day is expected to be 11.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MEDIFAST Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MEDIFAST INC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MEDIFAST INC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MEDIFAST INC | MEDIFAST INC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MEDIFAST INC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MEDIFAST INC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MEDIFAST INC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.59 and 14.02, respectively. We have considered MEDIFAST INC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MEDIFAST INC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MEDIFAST INC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.8848 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0225 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2259 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0199 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.33 |
Predictive Modules for MEDIFAST INC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MEDIFAST INC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MEDIFAST INC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MEDIFAST INC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MEDIFAST INC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MEDIFAST INC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MEDIFAST INC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MEDIFAST INC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MEDIFAST INC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MEDIFAST INC's historical news coverage. MEDIFAST INC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.54 and 13.96, respectively. We have considered MEDIFAST INC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MEDIFAST INC is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MEDIFAST INC is based on 3 months time horizon.
MEDIFAST INC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MEDIFAST INC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MEDIFAST INC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MEDIFAST INC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.21 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.91 | 11.75 | 0.43 |
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MEDIFAST INC Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January MEDIFAST INC is traded for 11.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. MEDIFAST is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.75 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.43%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on MEDIFAST INC is about 5525.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.91. The company reported the last year's revenue of 602.46 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.09 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 311.27 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MEDIFAST INC to cross-verify your projections.MEDIFAST INC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MEDIFAST INC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MEDIFAST INC's future price movements. Getting to know how MEDIFAST INC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MEDIFAST INC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CURV | Torrid Holdings | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 11.30 | (9.35) | 34.61 | |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries | 0.50 | 9 per month | 1.48 | 0.02 | 3.13 | (2.88) | 9.01 | |
| CLAR | Clarus Corp | (0.04) | 4 per month | 2.36 | 0.04 | 4.42 | (3.78) | 18.58 | |
| DIBS | 1StdibsCom | (0.09) | 8 per month | 2.13 | 0.26 | 9.58 | (4.17) | 23.12 | |
| CAAS | China Automotive Systems | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.72 | 0.03 | 3.27 | (3.15) | 11.14 | |
| FFAI | Faraday Future Intelligent | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.15 | (8.11) | 20.97 | |
| KEQU | Kewaunee Scientific | (0.10) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.39 | (2.95) | 10.57 | |
| MB | MasterBeef Group Ordinary | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.89 | (5.64) | 28.53 | |
| AIIO | Roboai Inc | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 8.62 | (16.18) | 75.86 | |
| AKA | AKA Brands Holding | 0.17 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.64 | (6.20) | 22.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for MEDIFAST INC
For every potential investor in MEDIFAST, whether a beginner or expert, MEDIFAST INC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MEDIFAST Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MEDIFAST. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MEDIFAST INC's price trends.MEDIFAST INC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MEDIFAST INC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MEDIFAST INC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MEDIFAST INC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MEDIFAST INC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MEDIFAST INC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MEDIFAST INC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MEDIFAST INC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MEDIFAST INC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MEDIFAST INC Risk Indicators
The analysis of MEDIFAST INC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MEDIFAST INC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medifast stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Variance | 4.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MEDIFAST INC
The number of cover stories for MEDIFAST INC depends on current market conditions and MEDIFAST INC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MEDIFAST INC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MEDIFAST INC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
MEDIFAST INC Short Properties
MEDIFAST INC's future price predictability will typically decrease when MEDIFAST INC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MEDIFAST INC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MEDIFAST INC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MEDIFAST INC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 162.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MEDIFAST INC to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade MEDIFAST Stock refer to our How to Trade MEDIFAST Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Personal Care Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MEDIFAST INC. If investors know MEDIFAST will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MEDIFAST INC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.87) | Earnings Share 0.02 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.36) | Return On Assets |
The market value of MEDIFAST INC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MEDIFAST that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MEDIFAST INC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MEDIFAST INC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MEDIFAST INC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MEDIFAST INC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MEDIFAST INC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MEDIFAST INC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MEDIFAST INC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.