Methode Electronics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MEI Stock | USD 7.58 0.03 0.40% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Methode Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.01. Methode Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Methode Electronics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Methode Electronics' share price is at 56. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Methode Electronics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.59) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.49 | Wall Street Target Price 9.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.20) |
Using Methode Electronics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Methode Electronics from the perspective of Methode Electronics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Methode Electronics using Methode Electronics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Methode using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Methode Electronics' stock price.
Methode Electronics Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Methode Electronics' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Methode. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Methode Electronics stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 7.2875 | Short Percent 0.045 | Short Ratio 4.21 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.3 M | 50 Day MA 7.0314 |
Methode Electronics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Methode Electronics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Methode. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Methode can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Methode Electronics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Methode Electronics Implied Volatility | 1.27 |
Methode Electronics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Methode Electronics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Methode Electronics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Methode Electronics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Methode Electronics' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Methode Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.01. Methode Electronics after-hype prediction price | USD 7.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Methode Electronics to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Methode Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Methode Electronics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Methode Electronics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Methode Electronics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Methode Electronics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Methode Electronics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Methode Electronics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Methode. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Methode Electronics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Methode price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Methode using various technical indicators. When you analyze Methode charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Methode Electronics Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Methode Electronics' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1986-01-31 | Previous Quarter 121.1 M | Current Value 118.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 72.1 M |
Methode Electronics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Methode Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Methode Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Methode Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Methode Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Methode Electronics | Methode Electronics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Methode Electronics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Methode Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Methode Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.32 and 10.97, respectively. We have considered Methode Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Methode Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Methode Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4171 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1776 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0247 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.0083 |
Predictive Modules for Methode Electronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Methode Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Methode Electronics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Methode Electronics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Methode Electronics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Methode Electronics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Methode Electronics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Methode Electronics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Methode Electronics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Methode Electronics' historical news coverage. Methode Electronics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.29 and 10.87, respectively. We have considered Methode Electronics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Methode Electronics is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Methode Electronics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Methode Electronics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Methode Electronics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Methode Electronics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Methode Electronics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 3.32 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 18 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 18 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.58 | 7.58 | 0.00 |
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Methode Electronics Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Methode Electronics is traded for 7.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Methode is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Methode Electronics is about 9222.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.57. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.39. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Methode Electronics has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.16. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.78. The firm last dividend was issued on the 16th of January 2026. Methode Electronics had 10000:3742 split on the 30th of April 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 18 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Methode Electronics to cross-verify your projections.Methode Electronics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Methode Electronics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Methode Electronics' future price movements. Getting to know how Methode Electronics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Methode Electronics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GDC | GD Culture Group | (0.07) | 31 per month | 6.06 | 0.01 | 11.74 | (9.57) | 60.85 | |
| SATL | Satellogic V | (0.06) | 7 per month | 5.17 | 0.12 | 16.84 | (8.00) | 26.31 | |
| UIS | Unisys | (0.16) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.30 | (4.59) | 24.72 | |
| ONTF | ON24 Inc | 0.06 | 12 per month | 1.44 | 0.12 | 4.60 | (3.14) | 38.78 | |
| AZ | A2Z Smart Technologies | 0.15 | 9 per month | 5.03 | 0.05 | 7.79 | (7.12) | 25.03 | |
| SMRT | SmartRent | (0.07) | 10 per month | 2.08 | 0.06 | 5.75 | (4.06) | 21.69 | |
| KLTR | Kaltura | (0.11) | 7 per month | 3.82 | 0.02 | 8.16 | (6.70) | 32.77 | |
| INSG | Inseego Corp | (0.16) | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.58 | (5.49) | 19.51 | |
| DMRC | Digimarc | 0.03 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.30 | (7.96) | 25.20 | |
| VUZI | Vuzix Corp Cmn | 0.03 | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.38 | (8.86) | 43.23 |
Other Forecasting Options for Methode Electronics
For every potential investor in Methode, whether a beginner or expert, Methode Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Methode Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Methode. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Methode Electronics' price trends.Methode Electronics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Methode Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Methode Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Methode Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Methode Electronics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Methode Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Methode Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Methode Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Methode Electronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Methode Electronics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Methode Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Methode Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting methode stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Variance | 10.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Methode Electronics
The number of cover stories for Methode Electronics depends on current market conditions and Methode Electronics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Methode Electronics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Methode Electronics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Methode Electronics Short Properties
Methode Electronics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Methode Electronics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Methode Electronics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Methode Electronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Methode Electronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 103.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Methode Electronics to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Methode Stock please use our How to Invest in Methode Electronics guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Methode Electronics. If investors know Methode will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Methode Electronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share (1.78) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) |
The market value of Methode Electronics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Methode that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Methode Electronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Methode Electronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Methode Electronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Methode Electronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Methode Electronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Methode Electronics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Methode Electronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.