MetLife Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MET Stock | USD 76.38 1.06 1.41% |
MetLife Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of MetLife's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.2088 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.8205 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.0416 | Wall Street Target Price 92.6 |
Using MetLife hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MetLife from the perspective of MetLife response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MetLife using MetLife's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MetLife using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MetLife's stock price.
MetLife Short Interest
An investor who is long MetLife may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about MetLife and may potentially protect profits, hedge MetLife with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 78.643 | Short Percent 0.0182 | Short Ratio 2.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.2 M | 50 Day MA 78.7028 |
MetLife Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MetLife on the next trading day is expected to be 76.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.69.MetLife Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MetLife's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MetLife. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MetLife can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MetLife. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MetLife's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MetLife.
MetLife Implied Volatility | 0.28 |
MetLife's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MetLife stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MetLife's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MetLife stock will not fluctuate a lot when MetLife's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MetLife on the next trading day is expected to be 76.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.69. MetLife after-hype prediction price | USD 76.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MetLife to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MetLife contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MetLife will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0175% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With MetLife trading at USD 76.38, that is roughly USD 0.0134 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MetLife's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MetLife options at the current volatility level of 0.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 MetLife Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MetLife's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MetLife's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MetLife stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MetLife's open interest, investors have to compare it to MetLife's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MetLife is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MetLife. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MetLife Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MetLife price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MetLife using various technical indicators. When you analyze MetLife charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MetLife Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MetLife on the next trading day is expected to be 76.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 1.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MetLife Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MetLife's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MetLife Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MetLife | MetLife Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MetLife Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MetLife's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MetLife's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 74.82 and 77.85, respectively. We have considered MetLife's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MetLife stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MetLife stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2051 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9782 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.6906 |
Predictive Modules for MetLife
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MetLife. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MetLife's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MetLife After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MetLife at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MetLife or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MetLife, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MetLife Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MetLife's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MetLife's historical news coverage. MetLife's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 74.86 and 77.88, respectively. We have considered MetLife's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MetLife is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MetLife is based on 3 months time horizon.
MetLife Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MetLife is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MetLife backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MetLife, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.51 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
76.38 | 76.37 | 0.01 |
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MetLife Hype Timeline
On the 7th of February MetLife is traded for 76.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. MetLife is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 76.37. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on MetLife is about 990.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 76.38. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.81. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MetLife has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.63. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of February 2026. The firm had 1122:1000 split on the 7th of August 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MetLife to cross-verify your projections.MetLife Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MetLife's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MetLife's future price movements. Getting to know how MetLife's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MetLife may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UNM | Unum Group | (0.77) | 12 per month | 0.98 | (0.03) | 1.99 | (1.70) | 10.28 | |
| GL | Globe Life | (0.35) | 13 per month | 0.67 | 0.09 | 2.07 | (1.43) | 4.88 | |
| CNO | CNO Financial Group | 0.51 | 11 per month | 1.08 | 0.07 | 2.43 | (1.93) | 7.94 | |
| BHFAP | Brighthouse Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.04 | 1.87 | (2.22) | 16.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for MetLife
For every potential investor in MetLife, whether a beginner or expert, MetLife's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MetLife Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MetLife. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MetLife's price trends.MetLife Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MetLife stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MetLife could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MetLife by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MetLife Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MetLife stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MetLife shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MetLife stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MetLife entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 71510.01 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8548 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 76.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 76.29 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.66 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.06 |
MetLife Risk Indicators
The analysis of MetLife's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MetLife's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting metlife stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Variance | 2.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MetLife
The number of cover stories for MetLife depends on current market conditions and MetLife's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MetLife is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MetLife's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for MetLife Stock Analysis
When running MetLife's price analysis, check to measure MetLife's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MetLife is operating at the current time. Most of MetLife's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MetLife's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MetLife's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MetLife to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.