MidCap Financial Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MFIC Stock | USD 11.28 0.36 3.30% |
MidCap Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MidCap Financial stock prices and determine the direction of MidCap Financial Investment's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of MidCap Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of MidCap Financial's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3794 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.5015 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.4222 | Wall Street Target Price 12.6563 |
Using MidCap Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MidCap Financial Investment from the perspective of MidCap Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MidCap Financial using MidCap Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MidCap using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MidCap Financial's stock price.
MidCap Financial Implied Volatility | 0.71 |
MidCap Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MidCap Financial Investment stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MidCap Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MidCap Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when MidCap Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MidCap Financial Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 11.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.63. MidCap Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 11.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MidCap Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MidCap contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MidCap Financial Investment will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0444% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With MidCap Financial trading at USD 11.28, that is roughly USD 0.005005 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MidCap Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MidCap Financial Investment options at the current volatility level of 0.71%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 MidCap Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MidCap Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MidCap Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MidCap Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MidCap Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to MidCap Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MidCap Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MidCap. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MidCap Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MidCap price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MidCap using various technical indicators. When you analyze MidCap charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MidCap Financial Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MidCap Financial Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 11.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MidCap Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MidCap Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MidCap Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MidCap Financial | MidCap Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MidCap Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MidCap Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MidCap Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.82 and 12.67, respectively. We have considered MidCap Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MidCap Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MidCap Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0217 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1272 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0111 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.6336 |
Predictive Modules for MidCap Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MidCap Financial Inv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MidCap Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MidCap Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MidCap Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MidCap Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MidCap Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MidCap Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MidCap Financial's historical news coverage. MidCap Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.85 and 12.71, respectively. We have considered MidCap Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MidCap Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MidCap Financial Inv is based on 3 months time horizon.
MidCap Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MidCap Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MidCap Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MidCap Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.28 | 11.28 | 0.00 |
|
MidCap Financial Hype Timeline
MidCap Financial Inv is now traded for 11.28. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. MidCap is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on MidCap Financial is about 1409.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.28. About 34.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.76. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MidCap Financial Inv has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.76. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of December 2025. The firm had 1:3 split on the 3rd of December 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MidCap Financial to cross-verify your projections.MidCap Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MidCap Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MidCap Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how MidCap Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MidCap Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SOR | Source Capital Closed | 0.23 | 8 per month | 1.05 | 0.08 | 1.83 | (1.93) | 5.72 | |
| GIG | GigCapital7 Corp Class | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.47) | 0.19 | (0.28) | 1.03 | |
| SAR | Saratoga Investment Corp | 0.18 | 8 per month | 0.76 | 0.09 | 1.60 | (1.27) | 4.29 | |
| PNNT | PennantPark Investment | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.16 | (2.42) | 7.91 | |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment | (0.72) | 8 per month | 0.35 | 0.09 | 1.64 | (1.67) | 45.03 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | (0.68) | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.06 | 2.10 | (1.60) | 9.50 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | 0.25 | 8 per month | 1.22 | 0.04 | 2.04 | (2.16) | 6.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for MidCap Financial
For every potential investor in MidCap, whether a beginner or expert, MidCap Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MidCap Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MidCap. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MidCap Financial's price trends.MidCap Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MidCap Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MidCap Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MidCap Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MidCap Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MidCap Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MidCap Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MidCap Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MidCap Financial Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 40283.27 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.0 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.36 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.36 |
MidCap Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of MidCap Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MidCap Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting midcap stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9865 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Variance | 1.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MidCap Financial
The number of cover stories for MidCap Financial depends on current market conditions and MidCap Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MidCap Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MidCap Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
MidCap Financial Short Properties
MidCap Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when MidCap Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MidCap Financial Investment often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MidCap Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MidCap Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 78 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MidCap Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could MidCap diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MidCap Financial. Expected growth trajectory for MidCap significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every MidCap Financial data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share 1.05 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.005 |
MidCap Financial Inv's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on MidCap's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate MidCap Financial's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since MidCap Financial's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that MidCap Financial's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether MidCap Financial represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, MidCap Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.