MGP Ingredients Stock Forward View
| MGPI Stock | USD 24.91 0.20 0.80% |
MGP Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of MGP Ingredients' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 2nd of February 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of MGP Ingredients' share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MGP Ingredients, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.64 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.692 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.552 | Wall Street Target Price 34.8 |
Using MGP Ingredients hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MGP Ingredients from the perspective of MGP Ingredients response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MGP Ingredients using MGP Ingredients' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MGP using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MGP Ingredients' stock price.
MGP Ingredients Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in MGP Ingredients' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards MGP. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of MGP Ingredients stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 27.3749 | Short Percent 0.1145 | Short Ratio 3.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 24.3548 |
MGP Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MGP Ingredients on the next trading day is expected to be 25.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.51.MGP Ingredients Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MGP Ingredients' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MGP. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MGP can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MGP Ingredients. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MGP Ingredients' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MGP Ingredients.
MGP Ingredients Implied Volatility | 0.79 |
MGP Ingredients' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MGP Ingredients stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MGP Ingredients' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MGP Ingredients stock will not fluctuate a lot when MGP Ingredients' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MGP Ingredients on the next trading day is expected to be 25.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.51. MGP Ingredients after-hype prediction price | USD 24.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MGP Ingredients to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MGP contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MGP Ingredients will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0494% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With MGP Ingredients trading at USD 24.91, that is roughly USD 0.0123 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MGP Ingredients' daily price movement you should consider acquiring MGP Ingredients options at the current volatility level of 0.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 MGP Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MGP Ingredients' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MGP Ingredients' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MGP Ingredients stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MGP Ingredients' open interest, investors have to compare it to MGP Ingredients' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MGP Ingredients is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MGP. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MGP Ingredients Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MGP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MGP using various technical indicators. When you analyze MGP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MGP Ingredients Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the MGP Ingredients' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1988-06-30 | Previous Quarter 17.3 M | Current Value 13.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 10.7 M |
MGP Ingredients Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MGP Ingredients on the next trading day is expected to be 25.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MGP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MGP Ingredients' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MGP Ingredients Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MGP Ingredients | MGP Ingredients Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MGP Ingredients Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MGP Ingredients' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MGP Ingredients' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.26 and 27.83, respectively. We have considered MGP Ingredients' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MGP Ingredients stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MGP Ingredients stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7974 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6969 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0285 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.5119 |
Predictive Modules for MGP Ingredients
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MGP Ingredients. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MGP Ingredients After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MGP Ingredients at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MGP Ingredients or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MGP Ingredients, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MGP Ingredients Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MGP Ingredients' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MGP Ingredients' historical news coverage. MGP Ingredients' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.62 and 27.18, respectively. We have considered MGP Ingredients' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MGP Ingredients is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MGP Ingredients is based on 3 months time horizon.
MGP Ingredients Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MGP Ingredients is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MGP Ingredients backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MGP Ingredients, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.28 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.91 | 24.90 | 0.04 |
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MGP Ingredients Hype Timeline
MGP Ingredients is now traded for 24.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. MGP is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 24.9. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on MGP Ingredients is about 1022.42%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.92. About 32.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.63. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MGP Ingredients has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.13. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.63. The firm last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. MGP Ingredients had 2:1 split on the 16th of July 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MGP Ingredients to cross-verify your projections.MGP Ingredients Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MGP Ingredients' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MGP Ingredients' future price movements. Getting to know how MGP Ingredients' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MGP Ingredients may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NUS | Nu Skin Enterprises | 0.35 | 6 per month | 3.35 | (0.01) | 5.35 | (4.16) | 20.63 | |
| OTLY | Oatly Group AB | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.77 | (5.66) | 16.31 | |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market | 0.32 | 8 per month | 1.19 | 0.09 | 2.83 | (2.07) | 7.68 | |
| HELE | Helen of Troy | 1.28 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.33 | (4.73) | 13.25 | |
| APEI | American Public Education | 0.39 | 11 per month | 1.66 | 0.10 | 5.11 | (3.34) | 10.54 | |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services | (0.75) | 9 per month | 2.77 | 0.08 | 5.32 | (4.53) | 20.71 | |
| BYND | Beyond Meat | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 11.83 | (9.82) | 45.83 | |
| WEST | Westrock Coffee | 0.01 | 8 per month | 3.66 | (0.01) | 8.01 | (6.70) | 18.25 | |
| ABVE | Above Food Ingredients | 0.62 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 14.07 | (15.33) | 52.76 | |
| VSTA | Vasta Platform | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 1.42 | (1.61) | 11.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for MGP Ingredients
For every potential investor in MGP, whether a beginner or expert, MGP Ingredients' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MGP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MGP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MGP Ingredients' price trends.MGP Ingredients Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MGP Ingredients stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MGP Ingredients could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MGP Ingredients by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MGP Ingredients Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MGP Ingredients stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MGP Ingredients shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MGP Ingredients stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MGP Ingredients entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MGP Ingredients Risk Indicators
The analysis of MGP Ingredients' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MGP Ingredients' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mgp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MGP Ingredients
The number of cover stories for MGP Ingredients depends on current market conditions and MGP Ingredients' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MGP Ingredients is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MGP Ingredients' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MGP Ingredients Short Properties
MGP Ingredients' future price predictability will typically decrease when MGP Ingredients' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MGP Ingredients often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MGP Ingredients' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MGP Ingredients' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 25.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MGP Ingredients to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in MGP Stock please use our How to Invest in MGP Ingredients guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is there potential for Distillers & Vintners market expansion? Will MGP introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MGP Ingredients. Expected growth trajectory for MGP significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about MGP Ingredients listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | Dividend Share 0.48 | Earnings Share (0.63) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) |
The market value of MGP Ingredients is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MGP that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MGP Ingredients' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MGP Ingredients' true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because MGP Ingredients' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MGP Ingredients' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that MGP Ingredients' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether MGP Ingredients represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, MGP Ingredients' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.