Mgp Ingredients Stock Price Prediction

MGPI Stock  USD 32.74  0.52  1.56%   
As of 2nd of March 2025, the relative strength index (RSI) of MGP Ingredients' share price is approaching 37. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MGP Ingredients, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 37

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of MGP Ingredients' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with MGP Ingredients, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting MGP Ingredients' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.845
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.61
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.5717
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.0867
Wall Street Target Price
43.8333
Using MGP Ingredients hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MGP Ingredients from the perspective of MGP Ingredients response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MGP Ingredients using MGP Ingredients' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MGP using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MGP Ingredients' stock price.

MGP Ingredients Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in MGP Ingredients' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards MGP. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of MGP Ingredients stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
63.1549
Short Percent
0.3032
Short Ratio
9.97
Shares Short Prior Month
3.3 M
50 Day MA
36.083

MGP Ingredients Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to MGP Ingredients' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MGP. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MGP can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MGP Ingredients. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MGP Ingredients' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MGP Ingredients.

MGP Ingredients Implied Volatility

    
  0.78  
MGP Ingredients' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MGP Ingredients stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MGP Ingredients' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MGP Ingredients stock will not fluctuate a lot when MGP Ingredients' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MGP Ingredients to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MGP because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

MGP Ingredients after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 32.98  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MGP contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MGP Ingredients will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With MGP Ingredients trading at USD 32.74, that is roughly USD 0.016 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MGP Ingredients' daily price movement you should consider acquiring MGP Ingredients options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out MGP Ingredients Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in MGP Stock please use our How to Invest in MGP Ingredients guide.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
29.4738.9441.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
32.3334.5936.85
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
54.4559.8366.41
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.340.420.48
Details

MGP Ingredients After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of MGP Ingredients at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MGP Ingredients or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MGP Ingredients, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.1532.8132.8532.8932.9432.9833.0233.0733.1133.15 Price after next news: 32.98 0.077910.077920.077930.077940.077950.077960.07797
       Expected price to next headline  

MGP Ingredients Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting MGP Ingredients' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MGP Ingredients' historical news coverage. MGP Ingredients' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.72 and 35.24, respectively. We have considered MGP Ingredients' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
32.74
32.98
After-hype Price
35.24
Upside
MGP Ingredients is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MGP Ingredients is based on 3 months time horizon.

MGP Ingredients Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MGP Ingredients is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MGP Ingredients backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MGP Ingredients, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.52 
2.26
  0.24 
  0.13 
10 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
32.74
32.98
0.73 
480.85  
Notes

MGP Ingredients Hype Timeline

MGP Ingredients is now traded for 32.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.13. MGP is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 32.98 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.73%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.52%. The volatility of related hype on MGP Ingredients is about 900.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.87. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 703.62 M. Net Income was 34.47 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 286.32 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out MGP Ingredients Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in MGP Stock please use our How to Invest in MGP Ingredients guide.
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Brown-Forman Corp Q2 2025 Earnings Call HighlightsNavigating Challenges and Seizing ...46.63WVVI @ MacroaxisInsiderBF-B @ newsWVVI @ bizjournalsBF-B @ financeMGP Ingredients, Inc. Securities Fraud Class Action Lawsuit Pending ContactLevi Korsinsky Before February 14, 2025 to Discuss Your Rights MGPI31.84STZ @ cnbcPrestigious bartending competition WorldClass returns to Singapore after 6 yearsDEO @ financeSTZ @ gurufocusSTZ @ businesswireWVVI @ thelincolnianonlineDEO @ insidermonkeyBF-A @ newsFebMar
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15JanFeb

MGP Ingredients Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to MGP Ingredients' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MGP Ingredients' future price movements. Getting to know how MGP Ingredients' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MGP Ingredients may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VWEVintage Wine Estates 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
BF-BBrown Forman 0.20 7 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.37 (3.33) 16.61 
DEODiageo PLC ADR 1.58 11 per month 0.00 (0.04) 2.79 (2.53) 10.41 
BF-ABrown Forman(0.90)6 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.27 (3.26) 16.72 
STZConstellation Brands Class 1.77 9 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.22 (2.87) 19.31 
NAPADuckhorn Portfolio 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
PDRDFPernod Ricard SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0) 5.22 (5.17) 15.42 
WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards(0.14)4 per month 1.82  0.25  7.92 (2.76) 28.43 
REMYYRemy Cointreau SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.04) 2.84 (4.27) 14.35 
TSRYYTreasury Wine Estates 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.05) 2.58 (1.99) 7.84 

MGP Ingredients Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine MGP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MGP using various technical indicators. When you analyze MGP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About MGP Ingredients Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of MGP Ingredients stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MGP Ingredients, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MGP Ingredients based on analysis of MGP Ingredients hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MGP Ingredients's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MGP Ingredients's related companies.
 2022 2023 2024 2025 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0045480.0049120.01230.008424
Price To Sales Ratio2.992.61.230.94

Story Coverage note for MGP Ingredients

The number of cover stories for MGP Ingredients depends on current market conditions and MGP Ingredients' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MGP Ingredients is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MGP Ingredients' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

MGP Ingredients Short Properties

MGP Ingredients' future price predictability will typically decrease when MGP Ingredients' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MGP Ingredients often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MGP Ingredients' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MGP Ingredients' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding22 M
Cash And Short Term Investments25.3 M

Complementary Tools for MGP Stock analysis

When running MGP Ingredients' price analysis, check to measure MGP Ingredients' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MGP Ingredients is operating at the current time. Most of MGP Ingredients' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MGP Ingredients' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MGP Ingredients' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MGP Ingredients to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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