Moog Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MOG-A Stock | USD 291.59 3.13 1.09% |
Moog Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moog stock prices and determine the direction of Moog Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Moog's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The RSI of Moog's share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Moog, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.52 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.1267 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.935 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.2667 | Wall Street Target Price 282.25 |
Using Moog hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Moog Inc from the perspective of Moog response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Moog using Moog's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Moog using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Moog's stock price.
Moog Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Moog's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Moog. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Moog stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 203.0055 | Short Percent 0.0243 | Short Ratio 2.53 | Shares Short Prior Month 636.2 K | 50 Day MA 243.8718 |
Moog Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moog Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 300.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 282.48.Moog Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Moog's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Moog. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Moog can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Moog Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Moog's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Moog.
Moog Implied Volatility | 0.35 |
Moog's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Moog Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Moog's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Moog stock will not fluctuate a lot when Moog's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moog Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 300.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 282.48. Moog after-hype prediction price | USD 294.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moog to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Moog contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Moog Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0219% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Moog trading at USD 291.59, that is roughly USD 0.0638 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Moog's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Moog Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.35%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Moog Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Moog's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Moog's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Moog stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Moog's open interest, investors have to compare it to Moog's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Moog is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Moog. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Moog Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Moog price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Moog using various technical indicators. When you analyze Moog charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Moog Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Moog's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-09-30 | Previous Quarter 59 M | Current Value 62 M | Quarterly Volatility 93.2 M |
Moog Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moog Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 300.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.63, mean absolute percentage error of 34.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 282.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moog Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moog's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Moog Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Moog | Moog Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Moog Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Moog's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moog's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 298.76 and 302.49, respectively. We have considered Moog's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moog stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moog stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.6375 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.6308 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 282.4811 |
Predictive Modules for Moog
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moog Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Moog After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Moog at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Moog or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Moog, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Moog Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Moog's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Moog's historical news coverage. Moog's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 262.43 and 296.03, respectively. We have considered Moog's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Moog is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Moog Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Moog Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Moog is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Moog backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Moog, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 1.87 | 2.62 | 0.30 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
291.59 | 294.17 | 0.88 |
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Moog Hype Timeline
Moog Inc is now traded for 291.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.62, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. Moog is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 294.17 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 39.2%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.88%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.55%. The volatility of related hype on Moog is about 346.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 291.89. The company reported the revenue of 3.86 B. Net Income was 235.03 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.06 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moog to cross-verify your projections.Moog Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Moog's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Moog's future price movements. Getting to know how Moog's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Moog may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GTES | Gates Industrial | 0.19 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.97 | (3.08) | 15.34 | |
| MSA | MSA Safety | (0.93) | 15 per month | 1.61 | 0.04 | 3.11 | (2.04) | 11.36 | |
| FLS | Flowserve | (0.58) | 10 per month | 0.94 | 0.15 | 2.55 | (2.33) | 34.18 | |
| AMTM | Amentum Holdings | 0.50 | 8 per month | 1.32 | 0.18 | 4.58 | (2.63) | 21.59 | |
| ADT | ADT Inc | 0.08 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.73 | (2.31) | 9.78 | |
| FSS | Federal Signal | 0.57 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.38 | (2.31) | 13.86 | |
| RAL | Ralliant Common | 0.31 | 8 per month | 1.20 | 0.17 | 3.14 | (2.41) | 8.74 | |
| PRIM | Primoris Services | 3.46 | 19 per month | 3.19 | 0.02 | 5.21 | (4.75) | 15.24 | |
| CAE | CAE Inc | 0.40 | 3 per month | 1.37 | 0.11 | 2.90 | (2.04) | 9.61 | |
| MIDD | Middleby Corp | 1.40 | 9 per month | 1.62 | 0.03 | 3.85 | (3.10) | 12.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Moog
For every potential investor in Moog, whether a beginner or expert, Moog's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moog Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moog. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moog's price trends.Moog Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moog stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moog could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moog by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Moog Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moog stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moog shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moog stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moog Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Moog Risk Indicators
The analysis of Moog's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moog's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moog stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8355 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6981 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Moog
The number of cover stories for Moog depends on current market conditions and Moog's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Moog is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Moog's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Moog Short Properties
Moog's future price predictability will typically decrease when Moog's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Moog Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Moog's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moog's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 61.7 M |
Other Information on Investing in Moog Stock
Moog financial ratios help investors to determine whether Moog Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Moog with respect to the benefits of owning Moog security.