MOGU Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MOGU Stock | USD 2.00 0.07 3.63% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MOGU Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.25. MOGU Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of MOGU's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 35.66 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 |
Using MOGU hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MOGU Inc from the perspective of MOGU response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MOGU Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.25. MOGU after-hype prediction price | USD 1.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MOGU to cross-verify your projections. MOGU Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MOGU price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MOGU using various technical indicators. When you analyze MOGU charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MOGU Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MOGU Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MOGU Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MOGU's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MOGU Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MOGU | MOGU Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MOGU Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MOGU's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MOGU's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.66, respectively. We have considered MOGU's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MOGU stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MOGU stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.5265 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0172 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0709 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0286 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.253 |
Predictive Modules for MOGU
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MOGU Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MOGU After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MOGU at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MOGU or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MOGU, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MOGU Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MOGU's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MOGU's historical news coverage. MOGU's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 5.63, respectively. We have considered MOGU's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MOGU is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MOGU Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
MOGU Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MOGU is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MOGU backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MOGU, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.61 | 3.67 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.00 | 1.96 | 2.00 |
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MOGU Hype Timeline
MOGU Inc is now traded for 2.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. MOGU is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.96. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.0%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.61%. The volatility of related hype on MOGU is about 10794.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.02. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.22. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MOGU Inc recorded a loss per share of 0.84. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:12 split on the 28th of March 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MOGU to cross-verify your projections.MOGU Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MOGU's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MOGU's future price movements. Getting to know how MOGU's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MOGU may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MI | NFT Limited | 0.01 | 10 per month | 3.73 | 0.02 | 7.41 | (6.98) | 23.69 | |
| LGCB | Linkage Global Ordinary | 0.09 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 10.23 | (6.84) | 25.01 | |
| MMA | Alta Global Group | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.87 | (7.24) | 28.60 | |
| MGIH | Millennium Group International | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.52 | (9.70) | 42.24 | |
| SBDS | SBDS | (0.23) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 13.79 | (14.61) | 50.66 | |
| ROLR | High Roller Technologies | 0.15 | 8 per month | 9.11 | 0.11 | 16.89 | (13.97) | 465.57 | |
| BGI | Birks Group | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.41 | (4.12) | 27.29 | |
| JBDI | JBDI Holdings Limited | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 10.84 | (10.07) | 24.94 | |
| EVGO | Evgo Inc | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.77 | (5.03) | 16.24 | |
| FORD | Forward Industries | 0.25 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 14.99 | (12.08) | 84.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for MOGU
For every potential investor in MOGU, whether a beginner or expert, MOGU's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MOGU Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MOGU. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MOGU's price trends.MOGU Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MOGU stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MOGU could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MOGU by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MOGU Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MOGU stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MOGU shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MOGU stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MOGU Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MOGU Risk Indicators
The analysis of MOGU's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MOGU's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mogu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.7 | |||
| Variance | 13.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MOGU
The number of cover stories for MOGU depends on current market conditions and MOGU's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MOGU is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MOGU's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MOGU Short Properties
MOGU's future price predictability will typically decrease when MOGU's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MOGU Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MOGU's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MOGU's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 379.6 M |
Additional Tools for MOGU Stock Analysis
When running MOGU's price analysis, check to measure MOGU's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MOGU is operating at the current time. Most of MOGU's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MOGU's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MOGU's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MOGU to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.