Medibank Private Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

MPL Stock   3.74  0.04  1.06%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Medibank Private on the next trading day is expected to be 3.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.29. Medibank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Medibank Private's Non Current Liabilities Total is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Long Term Investments is likely to gain to about 334.5 M in 2024, whereas Other Liabilities is likely to drop slightly above 174.3 M in 2024.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Medibank Private price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Medibank Private Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Medibank Private on the next trading day is expected to be 3.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Medibank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Medibank Private's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Medibank Private Stock Forecast Pattern

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Medibank Private Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Medibank Private's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Medibank Private's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.82 and 4.78, respectively. We have considered Medibank Private's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.74
3.80
Expected Value
4.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Medibank Private stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Medibank Private stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.0888
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0376
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0102
SAESum of the absolute errors2.294
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Medibank Private historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Medibank Private

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medibank Private. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.803.784.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.763.744.72
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.040.050.06
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Medibank Private

For every potential investor in Medibank, whether a beginner or expert, Medibank Private's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Medibank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Medibank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Medibank Private's price trends.

Medibank Private Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Medibank Private stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Medibank Private could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Medibank Private by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Medibank Private Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Medibank Private's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Medibank Private's current price.

Medibank Private Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Medibank Private stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Medibank Private shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Medibank Private stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Medibank Private entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Medibank Private Risk Indicators

The analysis of Medibank Private's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Medibank Private's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medibank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Medibank Stock Analysis

When running Medibank Private's price analysis, check to measure Medibank Private's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Medibank Private is operating at the current time. Most of Medibank Private's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Medibank Private's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Medibank Private's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Medibank Private to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.