Marathon Petroleum Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MPN Stock | 166.96 2.50 1.48% |
Marathon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Marathon Petroleum's share price is at 52. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Marathon Petroleum, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.51 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
Using Marathon Petroleum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marathon Petroleum from the perspective of Marathon Petroleum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Marathon Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 158.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 565.94. Marathon Petroleum after-hype prediction price | EUR 166.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Marathon |
Marathon Petroleum Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Marathon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marathon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marathon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Marathon Petroleum Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Marathon Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 158.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.28, mean absolute percentage error of 102.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 565.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marathon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marathon Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marathon Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Marathon Petroleum | Marathon Petroleum Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Marathon Petroleum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marathon Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marathon Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 156.01 and 160.22, respectively. We have considered Marathon Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marathon Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marathon Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.7427 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.2777 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0599 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 565.9407 |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marathon Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Marathon Petroleum After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Marathon Petroleum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marathon Petroleum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marathon Petroleum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Marathon Petroleum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Marathon Petroleum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marathon Petroleum's historical news coverage. Marathon Petroleum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 164.72 and 168.92, respectively. We have considered Marathon Petroleum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Marathon Petroleum is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marathon Petroleum is based on 3 months time horizon.
Marathon Petroleum Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marathon Petroleum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marathon Petroleum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marathon Petroleum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.10 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
166.96 | 166.82 | 0.08 |
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Marathon Petroleum Hype Timeline
Marathon Petroleum is now traded for 166.96on Stuttgart Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Marathon is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 166.82. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 74.73%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Marathon Petroleum is about 342.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 166.99. About 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Marathon Petroleum was now reported as 48.19. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.15. Marathon Petroleum recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.13. The entity last dividend was issued on the 18th of February 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 11th of June 2015. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Petroleum to cross-verify your projections.Marathon Petroleum Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Marathon Petroleum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marathon Petroleum's future price movements. Getting to know how Marathon Petroleum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marathon Petroleum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TKDA | Takeda Pharmaceutical | 0.1 | 7 per month | 0.58 | 0.29 | 2.78 | (1.44) | 5.52 | |
| GE9 | Genmab AS | 4.70 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.73 | (3.42) | 9.60 | |
| CLN | The City of | 0.03 | 8 per month | 1.09 | 0.11 | 2.97 | (2.21) | 6.15 | |
| R7I | RENEWABLES INFRASTRUCTURE | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.80 | (3.61) | 11.13 | |
| 5QG | NEW FOUND GOLD | 0.05 | 6 per month | 5.04 | 0.06 | 11.93 | (8.63) | 40.57 | |
| 2HZ | Odyssean Investment Trust | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.12 | 0.02 | 2.09 | (2.62) | 5.63 | |
| 14D | tokentus investment AG | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.02 | (9.09) | 56.92 | |
| GE0 | GRAYCLIFF EXPLORATION LTD | 0.01 | 3 per month | 19.23 | 0.16 | 35.42 | (36.84) | 1,837 |
Other Forecasting Options for Marathon Petroleum
For every potential investor in Marathon, whether a beginner or expert, Marathon Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marathon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marathon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marathon Petroleum's price trends.Marathon Petroleum Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marathon Petroleum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marathon Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marathon Petroleum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marathon Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marathon Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marathon Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marathon Petroleum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Marathon Petroleum Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marathon Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marathon Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marathon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Variance | 4.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Marathon Petroleum
The number of cover stories for Marathon Petroleum depends on current market conditions and Marathon Petroleum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marathon Petroleum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marathon Petroleum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Marathon Stock Analysis
When running Marathon Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.