Merck Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| MRK Stock | 24.65 0.52 2.07% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Merck Co on the next trading day is expected to be 24.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.93. Merck Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Merck's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.87 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.037 |
Using Merck hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merck Co from the perspective of Merck response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Merck Co on the next trading day is expected to be 24.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.93. Merck after-hype prediction price | CAD 24.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Merck |
Merck Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Merck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merck using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merck Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of January 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Merck Co on the next trading day is expected to be 24.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merck Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merck's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merck Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Merck | Merck Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Merck Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merck's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merck's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.94 and 26.36, respectively. We have considered Merck's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merck stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merck stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.6598 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1435 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3488 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.93 |
Predictive Modules for Merck
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Merck
For every potential investor in Merck, whether a beginner or expert, Merck's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merck Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merck's price trends.Merck Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merck stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merck could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merck by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merck Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merck's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merck's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merck Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merck stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merck shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merck stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merck Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Merck Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merck's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merck's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merck stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.23 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Merck
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Merck position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Merck will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Merck Stock
Moving against Merck Stock
| 0.83 | MSFT | Microsoft Corp CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | MSFT | Microsoft CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | NVDA | Nvidia CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | NVDA | NVIDIA CDR | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Merck could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Merck when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Merck - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Merck Co to buy it.
The correlation of Merck is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Merck moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Merck moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Merck can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Merck Stock
Merck financial ratios help investors to determine whether Merck Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Merck with respect to the benefits of owning Merck security.