Moderna Stock Forward View - Accumulation Distribution
| MRNA Stock | USD 41.01 0.14 0.34% |
Moderna Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moderna stock prices and determine the direction of Moderna's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Moderna's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the rsi of Moderna's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.85) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (2.85) | EPS Estimate Current Year (7.89) | EPS Estimate Next Year (6.83) | Wall Street Target Price 38.8 |
Using Moderna hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Moderna from the perspective of Moderna response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Moderna using Moderna's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Moderna using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Moderna's stock price.
Moderna Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Moderna's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Moderna. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Moderna stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 28.9237 | Short Percent 0.2186 | Short Ratio 6.06 | Shares Short Prior Month 68.3 M | 50 Day MA 34.7494 |
Moderna Relative Strength Index
Moderna Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Moderna's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Moderna. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Moderna can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Moderna. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Moderna's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Moderna.
Moderna Implied Volatility | 0.84 |
Moderna's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Moderna stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Moderna's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Moderna stock will not fluctuate a lot when Moderna's options are near their expiration.
Moderna after-hype prediction price | USD 40.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moderna to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Moderna contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Moderna will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0525% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Moderna trading at USD 41.01, that is roughly USD 0.0215 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Moderna's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Moderna options at the current volatility level of 0.84%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Moderna Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Moderna's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Moderna's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Moderna stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Moderna's open interest, investors have to compare it to Moderna's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Moderna is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Moderna. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Moderna Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Moderna price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Moderna using various technical indicators. When you analyze Moderna charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Previous Accumulation Distribution | Accumulation Distribution | Trend |
| 399715.0 | 0.048 |
| Check Moderna Volatility | Backtest Moderna | Information Ratio |
Moderna Trading Date Momentum
| On February 08 2026 Moderna was traded for 41.01 at the closing time. The top price for the day was 41.49 and the lowest listed price was 39.50 . There was no trading activity during the period 0.0. Lack of trading volume on February 8, 2026 did not cause price change. The trading delta at closing time against the current closing price is 0.63% . |
Accumulation distribution indicator can signal that a trend is either nearing completion, at a continuation, or is about to break-outs. The actual value of this indicator is of no significance. What is significant is the change in value of over time. The formula for A/D of a given trading day can be expressed as follow: ((Close - Low) - (High - Close)) / (High - Low) X Volume
| Compare Moderna to competition |
Other Forecasting Options for Moderna
For every potential investor in Moderna, whether a beginner or expert, Moderna's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moderna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moderna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moderna's price trends.Moderna Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moderna stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moderna could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moderna by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Moderna Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moderna stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moderna shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moderna stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moderna entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Moderna Risk Indicators
The analysis of Moderna's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moderna's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moderna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.84 | |||
| Variance | 23.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Moderna
The number of cover stories for Moderna depends on current market conditions and Moderna's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Moderna is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Moderna's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Moderna Short Properties
Moderna's future price predictability will typically decrease when Moderna's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Moderna often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Moderna's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moderna's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 384 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moderna to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Moderna Stock refer to our How to Trade Moderna Stock guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moderna. Expected growth trajectory for Moderna significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Moderna assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.85) | Earnings Share (8.06) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.45) | Return On Assets |
Understanding Moderna requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Moderna's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Moderna's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Moderna's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Moderna's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Moderna represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Moderna's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.