Midland States Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MSBI Stock | USD 23.00 1.11 4.60% |
Midland Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Midland States' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Midland States' stock price is under 65. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 26th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Midland, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.642 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.734 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.866 | Wall Street Target Price 22.5 |
Using Midland States hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Midland States Bancorp from the perspective of Midland States response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Midland States using Midland States' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Midland using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Midland States' stock price.
Midland States Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Midland States' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Midland. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Midland States stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 17.9049 | Short Percent 0.0191 | Short Ratio 1.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 443.1 K | 50 Day MA 19.8364 |
Midland Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Midland States Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 25.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.99.Midland States Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Midland States' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Midland. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Midland can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Midland States Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Midland States' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Midland States.
Midland States Implied Volatility | 1.11 |
Midland States' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Midland States Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Midland States' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Midland States stock will not fluctuate a lot when Midland States' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Midland States Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 25.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.99. Midland States after-hype prediction price | USD 22.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Midland States to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Midland contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Midland States Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0694% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Midland States trading at USD 23.0, that is roughly USD 0.016 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Midland States' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Midland States Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 1.11%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Midland Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Midland States' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Midland States' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Midland States stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Midland States' open interest, investors have to compare it to Midland States' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Midland States is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Midland. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Midland States Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Midland price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Midland using various technical indicators. When you analyze Midland charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Midland States Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Midland States' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-03-31 | Previous Quarter 165.7 M | Current Value 127.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 149.2 M |
Midland States Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Midland States Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 25.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Midland Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Midland States' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Midland States Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Midland States | Midland States Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Midland States Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Midland States' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Midland States' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.22 and 27.78, respectively. We have considered Midland States' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Midland States stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Midland States stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3532 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5899 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0315 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.9852 |
Predictive Modules for Midland States
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Midland States Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Midland States After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Midland States at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Midland States or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Midland States, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Midland States Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Midland States' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Midland States' historical news coverage. Midland States' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.02 and 25.58, respectively. We have considered Midland States' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Midland States is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Midland States Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Midland States Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Midland States is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Midland States backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Midland States, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.62 | 2.78 | 0.20 | 0.36 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.00 | 22.80 | 0.87 |
|
Midland States Hype Timeline
Midland States Bancorp is now traded for 23.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.36. Midland is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 22.8. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.87%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.62%. The volatility of related hype on Midland States is about 474.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.36. About 67.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.86. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Midland States Bancorp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.2. The entity recorded a loss per share of 6.12. The firm last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Midland States to cross-verify your projections.Midland States Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Midland States' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Midland States' future price movements. Getting to know how Midland States' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Midland States may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BAC | Bank of America | (0.10) | 6 per month | 1.35 | (0.06) | 1.68 | (2.16) | 5.64 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | 1.34 | 7 per month | 1.09 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | 2.39 | 7 per month | 2.42 | 0.19 | 6.55 | (4.82) | 18.46 | |
| KOS | Kosmos Energy | (0.01) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.27 | (5.99) | 25.11 | |
| GGG | Graco Inc | 1.63 | 6 per month | 1.19 | 0.01 | 2.46 | (1.90) | 6.74 | |
| NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | (0.61) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.98 | (4.00) | 14.26 | |
| SRTOY | Sartorius Stedim Biotech | 0.31 | 9 per month | 1.97 | (0.01) | 2.92 | (3.28) | 14.94 | |
| KNX | Knight Transportation | (0.26) | 9 per month | 1.86 | 0.1 | 3.84 | (2.96) | 8.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for Midland States
For every potential investor in Midland, whether a beginner or expert, Midland States' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Midland Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Midland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Midland States' price trends.Midland States Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Midland States stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Midland States could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Midland States by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Midland States Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Midland States stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Midland States shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Midland States stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Midland States Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Midland States Risk Indicators
The analysis of Midland States' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Midland States' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting midland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.76 | |||
| Variance | 7.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Midland States
The number of cover stories for Midland States depends on current market conditions and Midland States' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Midland States is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Midland States' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Midland States to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Midland States. If investors know Midland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Midland States listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | Dividend Share 1.25 | Earnings Share (6.12) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.117 |
The market value of Midland States Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Midland that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Midland States' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Midland States' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Midland States' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Midland States' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Midland States' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Midland States is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Midland States' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.