Midland States Bancorp Stock Price Prediction

MSBI Stock  USD 21.56  0.35  1.65%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Midland States' share price is above 70 as of 5th of January 2026. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Midland, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 77

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Midland States' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Midland States Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Midland States' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.71)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.66
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.96
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.71
Wall Street Target Price
22
Using Midland States hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Midland States Bancorp from the perspective of Midland States response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Midland States using Midland States' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Midland using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Midland States' stock price.

Midland States Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Midland States' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Midland. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Midland States stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
17.5519
Short Percent
0.0212
Short Ratio
1.96
Shares Short Prior Month
486.4 K
50 Day MA
18.1086

Midland States Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Midland States' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Midland. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Midland can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Midland States Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Midland States' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Midland States.

Midland States Implied Volatility

    
  0.92  
Midland States' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Midland States Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Midland States' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Midland States stock will not fluctuate a lot when Midland States' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Midland States to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Midland because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Midland States after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 21.65  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Midland contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Midland States Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0575% per day over the life of the 2026-02-20 option contract. With Midland States trading at USD 21.56, that is roughly USD 0.0124 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Midland States' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Midland States Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 0.92%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Midland States Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.8622.6225.38
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
17.3920.1522.91
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
20.0222.0024.42
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.560.630.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Midland States. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Midland States' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Midland States' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Midland States Bancorp.

Midland States After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Midland States at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Midland States or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Midland States, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Midland States Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Midland States' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Midland States' historical news coverage. Midland States' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.89 and 24.41, respectively. We have considered Midland States' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
21.56
21.65
After-hype Price
24.41
Upside
Midland States is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Midland States Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Midland States Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Midland States is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Midland States backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Midland States, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.47 
2.76
  0.06 
  0.14 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
21.56
21.65
0.28 
2,300  
Notes

Midland States Hype Timeline

Midland States Bancorp is now traded for 21.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.14. Midland is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 21.65 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Midland States is about 913.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.70. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 546.05 M. Net Income was 38.04 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 210.72 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Midland States Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Midland States Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Midland States' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Midland States' future price movements. Getting to know how Midland States' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Midland States may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SFSTSouthern First Bancshares 1.50 9 per month 1.34  0.10  3.53 (2.14) 10.52 
BWFGBankwell Financial Group 0.34 9 per month 1.73 (0.01) 2.53 (2.63) 9.10 
USCBUS Century Bank(0.35)8 per month 1.33  0.01  3.49 (2.22) 7.02 
OBTOrange County Bancorp 0.77 7 per month 1.63  0.07  3.52 (2.88) 10.19 
FMAOFarmers Merchants Bancorp(0.10)9 per month 2.12 (0.02) 4.47 (3.71) 10.45 
WTBAWest Bancorporation 0.02 7 per month 1.59  0.04  2.76 (2.68) 7.97 
MVBFMVB Financial Corp 0.05 8 per month 1.70 (0.01) 3.03 (2.90) 8.59 
PBFSPioneer Bancorp 0.27 8 per month 1.14 (0.02) 2.06 (1.84) 8.41 
BRBSBlue Ridge Bankshares(0.01)8 per month 1.55  0.03  2.64 (2.43) 9.36 
PDLBPonce Financial Group 0.53 8 per month 1.31  0.05  3.45 (2.24) 9.42 

Midland States Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Midland price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Midland using various technical indicators. When you analyze Midland charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Midland States Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Midland States stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Midland States Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Midland States based on analysis of Midland States hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Midland States's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Midland States's related companies.
 2023 2024 2025 2026 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.05820.0680.06120.0643
Price To Sales Ratio1.20.971.111.06

Story Coverage note for Midland States

The number of cover stories for Midland States depends on current market conditions and Midland States' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Midland States is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Midland States' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Midland States Short Properties

Midland States' future price predictability will typically decrease when Midland States' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Midland States Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Midland States' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Midland States' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding21.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.1 B

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When running Midland States' price analysis, check to measure Midland States' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Midland States is operating at the current time. Most of Midland States' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Midland States' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Midland States' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Midland States to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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