Natures Sunshine Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NATR Stock | USD 16.04 0.37 2.36% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Natures Sunshine Products on the next trading day is expected to be 15.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.33. Natures Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Natures Sunshine's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Natures Sunshine's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Natures Sunshine fundamentals over time.
Natures |
Natures Sunshine Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Natures Sunshine's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 68.7 M | Current Value 78.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 23.4 M |
Natures Sunshine Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Natures Sunshine Products on the next trading day is expected to be 15.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Natures Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Natures Sunshine's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Natures Sunshine Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Natures Sunshine | Natures Sunshine Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Natures Sunshine Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Natures Sunshine's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Natures Sunshine's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.31 and 18.91, respectively. We have considered Natures Sunshine's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Natures Sunshine stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Natures Sunshine stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6556 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3333 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0238 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.3294 |
Predictive Modules for Natures Sunshine
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natures Sunshine Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natures Sunshine's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Natures Sunshine
For every potential investor in Natures, whether a beginner or expert, Natures Sunshine's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Natures Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Natures. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Natures Sunshine's price trends.Natures Sunshine Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Natures Sunshine stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Natures Sunshine could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Natures Sunshine by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Natures Sunshine Products Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Natures Sunshine's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Natures Sunshine's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Natures Sunshine Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Natures Sunshine stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Natures Sunshine shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Natures Sunshine stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Natures Sunshine Products entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Natures Sunshine Risk Indicators
The analysis of Natures Sunshine's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Natures Sunshine's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting natures stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Variance | 10.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.07 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.72) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Natures Sunshine
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Natures Sunshine position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Natures Sunshine will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Natures Stock
| 0.73 | UG | United Guardian | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | EL | Estee Lauder Companies | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | UL | Unilever PLC ADR | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | CL | Colgate Palmolive Fiscal Year End 24th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | KMB | Kimberly Clark Fiscal Year End 22nd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Natures Sunshine could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Natures Sunshine when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Natures Sunshine - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Natures Sunshine Products to buy it.
The correlation of Natures Sunshine is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Natures Sunshine moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Natures Sunshine Products moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Natures Sunshine can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Natures Stock Analysis
When running Natures Sunshine's price analysis, check to measure Natures Sunshine's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natures Sunshine is operating at the current time. Most of Natures Sunshine's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natures Sunshine's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natures Sunshine's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natures Sunshine to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.