New Gold Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| NGD Stock | CAD 3.90 0.05 1.30% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of New Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 4.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.84. New Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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New Gold Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of New Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 4.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
New Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest New Gold | New Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
New Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting New Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.09 and 6.97, respectively. We have considered New Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5912 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1587 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0412 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.8393 |
Predictive Modules for New Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for New Gold
For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Gold's price trends.New Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Gold Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
New Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
New Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of New Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Variance | 8.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with New Gold
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if New Gold position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in New Gold will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against New Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to New Gold could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace New Gold when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back New Gold - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling New Gold to buy it.
The correlation of New Gold is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as New Gold moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if New Gold moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for New Gold can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Gold to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in New Stock, please use our How to Invest in New Gold guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.