New Gold Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NGD Stock | CAD 17.59 0.20 1.15% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of New Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 18.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.22. New Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although New Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of New Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of New Gold fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of New Gold's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.75 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2519 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.616 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.1517 | Wall Street Target Price 14.8881 |
Using New Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of New Gold from the perspective of New Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of New Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 18.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.22. New Gold after-hype prediction price | CAD 17.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
New |
New Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine New price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for New using various technical indicators. When you analyze New charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
New Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of New Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 18.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
New Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest New Gold | New Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
New Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting New Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.77 and 22.41, respectively. We have considered New Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3361 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3745 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0326 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.2175 |
Predictive Modules for New Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.New Gold After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of New Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in New Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of New Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
New Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting New Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on New Gold's historical news coverage. New Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.41 and 21.05, respectively. We have considered New Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
New Gold is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of New Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
New Gold Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as New Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading New Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with New Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.19 | 3.82 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 10 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.59 | 17.23 | 2.05 |
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New Gold Hype Timeline
New Gold is now traded for 17.59on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.36, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. New is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 17.23. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -2.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.19%. The volatility of related hype on New Gold is about 1910.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.83. About 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. New Gold had 1:3 split on the 25th of July 2002. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Gold to cross-verify your projections.New Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to New Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict New Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how New Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how New Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BTO | B2Gold Corp | 0.54 | 2 per month | 3.14 | (0.01) | 4.60 | (4.55) | 12.91 | |
| OGC | OceanaGold | 0.54 | 3 per month | 1.85 | 0.29 | 4.57 | (3.88) | 11.33 | |
| ARTG | Artemis Gold | (1.57) | 4 per month | 2.12 | 0.15 | 6.14 | (4.09) | 12.17 | |
| ELD | Eldorado Gold Corp | 2.29 | 8 per month | 1.19 | 0.34 | 4.82 | (2.84) | 11.64 | |
| OR | Osisko Gold Ro | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.55 | 0.16 | 4.09 | (2.87) | 8.42 | |
| IMG | IAMGold | (0.10) | 9 per month | 1.97 | 0.24 | 5.59 | (4.30) | 14.96 | |
| SSRM | SSR Mining | 1.08 | 9 per month | 2.92 | 0.06 | 4.63 | (5.03) | 12.93 | |
| TFPM | Triple Flag Precious | (0.94) | 7 per month | 1.68 | 0.15 | 4.15 | (3.14) | 11.36 | |
| HBM | HudBay Minerals | 0.07 | 10 per month | 2.04 | 0.25 | 5.44 | (2.67) | 11.89 | |
| PRU | Perseus Mining | 0.09 | 8 per month | 1.62 | 0.22 | 4.01 | (2.91) | 9.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for New Gold
For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Gold's price trends.New Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 114840.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2667 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.24 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.2 |
New Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of New Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.74 | |||
| Variance | 13.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.39 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for New Gold
The number of cover stories for New Gold depends on current market conditions and New Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that New Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about New Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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New Gold Short Properties
New Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when New Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of New Gold often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential New Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 796.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 110.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Gold to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in New Stock, please use our How to Invest in New Gold guide.You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.