NI Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| NODK Stock | USD 13.62 0.18 1.34% |
NODK Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although NI Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of NI Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NI Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength indicator of NI Holdings' share price is at 53. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling NI Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.006 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) |
Using NI Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NI Holdings from the perspective of NI Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of NI Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 13.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.03. NI Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 13.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NI Holdings to cross-verify your projections. NI Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NODK price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NODK using various technical indicators. When you analyze NODK charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NI Holdings Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of NI Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 13.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NODK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NI Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NI Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NI Holdings | NI Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
NI Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NI Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NI Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.09 and 14.84, respectively. We have considered NI Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NI Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NI Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8566 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2299 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.0258 |
Predictive Modules for NI Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NI Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NI Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NI Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NI Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NI Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NI Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NI Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NI Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NI Holdings' historical news coverage. NI Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.25 and 15.01, respectively. We have considered NI Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NI Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NI Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
NI Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NI Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NI Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NI Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.38 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.62 | 13.63 | 0.07 |
|
NI Holdings Hype Timeline
NI Holdings is now traded for 13.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. NODK is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on NI Holdings is about 2262.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.62. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 325.2 M. Net Income was 6.6 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.03 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NI Holdings to cross-verify your projections.NI Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NI Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NI Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how NI Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NI Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CIA | Citizens | (0.05) | 10 per month | 4.02 | 0.01 | 4.61 | (6.53) | 15.47 | |
| FINW | Finwise Bancorp | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.79 | (2.52) | 7.91 | |
| JMSB | John Marshall Bancorp | 0.18 | 7 per month | 1.76 | 0.03 | 3.37 | (2.77) | 15.99 | |
| KINS | Kingstone Companies | (0.04) | 38 per month | 1.84 | 0.01 | 2.70 | (3.21) | 7.70 | |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.34 | 0.13 | 7.12 | (4.19) | 20.02 | |
| LEGT | Legato Merger Corp | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.56 | (0.05) | 0.47 | (0.55) | 4.86 | |
| FNLC | First Bancorp | 0.65 | 9 per month | 1.16 | 0.07 | 3.44 | (2.04) | 7.07 | |
| MBCN | Middlefield Banc | (0.65) | 8 per month | 2.14 | (0.01) | 3.67 | (3.16) | 11.23 | |
| NEWT | Newtek Business Services | 0.18 | 9 per month | 2.07 | 0.13 | 4.68 | (3.27) | 13.38 | |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp | 0.25 | 9 per month | 1.09 | 0.15 | 2.96 | (1.56) | 9.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for NI Holdings
For every potential investor in NODK, whether a beginner or expert, NI Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NODK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NODK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NI Holdings' price trends.NI Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NI Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NI Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NI Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NI Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NI Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NI Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NI Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NI Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NI Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of NI Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NI Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nodk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9803 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Variance | 1.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NI Holdings
The number of cover stories for NI Holdings depends on current market conditions and NI Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NI Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NI Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
NI Holdings Short Properties
NI Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when NI Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NI Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NI Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NI Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 192 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NI Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy NODK Stock please use our How to buy in NODK Stock guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NI Holdings. Anticipated expansion of NODK directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive NI Holdings assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.006 | Earnings Share 0.11 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) | Return On Assets |
Understanding NI Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects NODK's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what NI Holdings' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push NI Holdings' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between NI Holdings' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding NI Holdings should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, NI Holdings' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.