Obsidian Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| OBE Stock | CAD 10.92 0.52 5.00% |
Obsidian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Obsidian Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Obsidian Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Obsidian Energy fundamentals over time.
The value of relative strength index of Obsidian Energy's stock price is about 66. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Obsidian, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.22 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.79 | Wall Street Target Price 10.625 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.09 |
Using Obsidian Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Obsidian Energy from the perspective of Obsidian Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Obsidian Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 10.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.92. Obsidian Energy after-hype prediction price | CAD 10.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Obsidian |
Obsidian Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Obsidian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Obsidian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Obsidian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Obsidian Energy Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Obsidian Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 10.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Obsidian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Obsidian Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Obsidian Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Obsidian Energy | Obsidian Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Obsidian Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Obsidian Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Obsidian Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.52 and 13.28, respectively. We have considered Obsidian Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Obsidian Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Obsidian Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5383 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4341 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0494 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.9169 |
Predictive Modules for Obsidian Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Obsidian Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Obsidian Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Obsidian Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Obsidian Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Obsidian Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Obsidian Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Obsidian Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Obsidian Energy's historical news coverage. Obsidian Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.04 and 13.80, respectively. We have considered Obsidian Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Obsidian Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Obsidian Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Obsidian Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Obsidian Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Obsidian Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Obsidian Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 2.88 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.92 | 10.92 | 0.00 |
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Obsidian Energy Hype Timeline
Obsidian Energy is now traded for 10.92on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Obsidian is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.41%. %. The volatility of related hype on Obsidian Energy is about 4721.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.95. About 31.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.5. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Obsidian Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.09. The entity recorded a loss per share of 3.06. The firm last dividend was issued on the 28th of September 2015. Obsidian Energy had 1:7 split on the 10th of June 2019. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Obsidian Energy to cross-verify your projections.Obsidian Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Obsidian Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Obsidian Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Obsidian Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Obsidian Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TAL | PetroTal Corp | 0.01 | 5 per month | 2.86 | (0.01) | 5.26 | (4.88) | 22.45 | |
| SOIL | Saturn Oil Gas | 0.03 | 5 per month | 2.50 | 0.12 | 5.17 | (4.28) | 12.79 | |
| GFR | Greenfire Resources | 0.02 | 6 per month | 2.63 | 0.09 | 4.92 | (4.55) | 15.33 | |
| NOA | North American Construction | (0.23) | 10 per month | 1.45 | 0.12 | 2.41 | (2.39) | 9.06 | |
| SNM | ShaMaran Petroleum Corp | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.35 | (4.35) | 16.33 | |
| SGY | Surge Energy | 0.05 | 7 per month | 2.33 | 0.06 | 3.98 | (3.45) | 10.57 | |
| LGN | Logan Energy Corp | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.63 | (2.47) | 8.51 | |
| TNZ | Tenaz Energy Corp | 0.76 | 8 per month | 1.85 | 0.26 | 6.68 | (3.58) | 20.14 | |
| FEC | Frontera Energy Corp | (0.04) | 3 per month | 0.74 | 0.16 | 6.16 | (1.76) | 45.09 | |
| CEI | Benchmark Metals | 0.01 | 5 per month | 1.05 | (0.02) | 2.47 | (2.30) | 6.35 |
Other Forecasting Options for Obsidian Energy
For every potential investor in Obsidian, whether a beginner or expert, Obsidian Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Obsidian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Obsidian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Obsidian Energy's price trends.Obsidian Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Obsidian Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Obsidian Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Obsidian Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Obsidian Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Obsidian Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Obsidian Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Obsidian Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Obsidian Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Obsidian Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Obsidian Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Obsidian Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting obsidian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Variance | 7.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.1 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Obsidian Energy
The number of cover stories for Obsidian Energy depends on current market conditions and Obsidian Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Obsidian Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Obsidian Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Obsidian Energy to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Obsidian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Obsidian Energy guide.You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.