OrganiGram Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| OGI Stock | USD 1.66 0.04 2.47% |
OrganiGram Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of OrganiGram Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of OrganiGram Holdings' share price is approaching 48. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling OrganiGram Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.02) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.01 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.0535 | Wall Street Target Price 8.8 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.01) |
Using OrganiGram Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of OrganiGram Holdings from the perspective of OrganiGram Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards OrganiGram Holdings using OrganiGram Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards OrganiGram using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of OrganiGram Holdings' stock price.
OrganiGram Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in OrganiGram Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards OrganiGram. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of OrganiGram Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 1.5304 | Short Percent 0.0592 | Short Ratio 2.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.9 M | 50 Day MA 1.6784 |
OrganiGram Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of OrganiGram Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.72.OrganiGram Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to OrganiGram Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in OrganiGram. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding OrganiGram can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around OrganiGram Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of OrganiGram Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about OrganiGram Holdings.
OrganiGram Holdings Implied Volatility | 1.58 |
OrganiGram Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of OrganiGram Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if OrganiGram Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that OrganiGram Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when OrganiGram Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of OrganiGram Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.72. OrganiGram Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 1.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 OrganiGram Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast OrganiGram Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in OrganiGram Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for OrganiGram Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current OrganiGram Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to OrganiGram Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of OrganiGram Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in OrganiGram. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
OrganiGram Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine OrganiGram price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for OrganiGram using various technical indicators. When you analyze OrganiGram charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
OrganiGram Holdings Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the OrganiGram Holdings' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-09-30 | Previous Quarter 35.9 M | Current Value 60 M | Quarterly Volatility 31.8 M |
OrganiGram Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of OrganiGram Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OrganiGram Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OrganiGram Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
OrganiGram Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest OrganiGram Holdings | OrganiGram Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
OrganiGram Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting OrganiGram Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OrganiGram Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.87, respectively. We have considered OrganiGram Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OrganiGram Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OrganiGram Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0692 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0609 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0353 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.7162 |
Predictive Modules for OrganiGram Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OrganiGram Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.OrganiGram Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of OrganiGram Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in OrganiGram Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of OrganiGram Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
OrganiGram Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting OrganiGram Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on OrganiGram Holdings' historical news coverage. OrganiGram Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 5.73, respectively. We have considered OrganiGram Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
OrganiGram Holdings is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of OrganiGram Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
OrganiGram Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as OrganiGram Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading OrganiGram Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with OrganiGram Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 4.07 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 31 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 31 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.66 | 1.66 | 0.00 |
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OrganiGram Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January OrganiGram Holdings is traded for 1.66. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. OrganiGram is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on OrganiGram Holdings is about 4111.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.67. About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.88. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. OrganiGram Holdings recorded a loss per share of 0.14. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:4 split on the 7th of July 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 31 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OrganiGram Holdings to cross-verify your projections.OrganiGram Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to OrganiGram Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict OrganiGram Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how OrganiGram Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how OrganiGram Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DERM | Journey Medical Corp | 0.23 | 10 per month | 3.75 | 0.07 | 6.46 | (5.29) | 22.82 | |
| INFU | InfuSystems Holdings | 0.22 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.34 | (4.94) | 13.43 | |
| ACB | Aurora Cannabis | (0.20) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.56 | (5.19) | 26.49 | |
| HSDT | Helius Medical Technologies | (0.50) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 11.52 | (11.78) | 27.63 | |
| RNAC | Cartesian Therapeutics | (0.25) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.26 | (8.01) | 28.90 | |
| OBIO | Orchestra BioMed Holdings | 0.02 | 9 per month | 3.96 | 0.02 | 10.17 | (6.20) | 19.34 | |
| IVA | Inventiva Sa | (0.25) | 7 per month | 6.78 | 0.10 | 10.82 | (6.48) | 34.91 | |
| SXTC | China SXT Pharmaceuticals | 0.12 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 14.58 | (16.25) | 106.52 | |
| LFCR | Lifecore Biomedical | 1.36 | 9 per month | 2.00 | 0.13 | 6.17 | (4.01) | 15.24 | |
| ELMD | Electromed | 0.24 | 7 per month | 1.99 | 0.07 | 3.82 | (4.10) | 10.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for OrganiGram Holdings
For every potential investor in OrganiGram, whether a beginner or expert, OrganiGram Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OrganiGram Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OrganiGram. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OrganiGram Holdings' price trends.OrganiGram Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OrganiGram Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OrganiGram Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OrganiGram Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
OrganiGram Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OrganiGram Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OrganiGram Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OrganiGram Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OrganiGram Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
OrganiGram Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of OrganiGram Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OrganiGram Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting organigram stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.04 | |||
| Variance | 16.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for OrganiGram Holdings
The number of cover stories for OrganiGram Holdings depends on current market conditions and OrganiGram Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that OrganiGram Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about OrganiGram Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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OrganiGram Holdings Short Properties
OrganiGram Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when OrganiGram Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of OrganiGram Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential OrganiGram Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OrganiGram Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 127.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OrganiGram Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in OrganiGram Stock please use our How to Invest in OrganiGram Holdings guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OrganiGram Holdings. If investors know OrganiGram will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OrganiGram Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.14) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.791 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of OrganiGram Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OrganiGram that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OrganiGram Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OrganiGram Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OrganiGram Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OrganiGram Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OrganiGram Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OrganiGram Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OrganiGram Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.