Olin Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| OLN Stock | USD 24.46 0.62 2.60% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Olin Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 24.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.24. Olin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Olin's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Olin's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Olin fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Olin's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0041 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.17) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4492 | Wall Street Target Price 23.3333 |
Using Olin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Olin Corporation from the perspective of Olin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Olin using Olin's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Olin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Olin's stock price.
Olin Short Interest
An investor who is long Olin may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Olin and may potentially protect profits, hedge Olin with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 21.5807 | Short Percent 0.1194 | Short Ratio 4.59 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.8 M | 50 Day MA 21.0808 |
Olin Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Olin's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Olin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Olin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Olin Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Olin Implied Volatility | 0.77 |
Olin's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Olin Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Olin's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Olin stock will not fluctuate a lot when Olin's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Olin Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 24.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.24. Olin after-hype prediction price | USD 24.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Olin to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Olin contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Olin Corporation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0481% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Olin trading at USD 24.46, that is roughly USD 0.0118 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Olin's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Olin Corporation options at the current volatility level of 0.77%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Olin Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Olin's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Olin's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Olin stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Olin's open interest, investors have to compare it to Olin's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Olin is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Olin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Olin Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Olin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Olin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Olin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Olin Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Olin's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 223.8 M | Current Value 140.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 118.2 M |
Olin Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Olin Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 24.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Olin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Olin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Olin Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Olin | Olin Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Olin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Olin's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Olin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.06 and 27.51, respectively. We have considered Olin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Olin stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Olin stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2335 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5121 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0244 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.241 |
Predictive Modules for Olin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Olin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Olin After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Olin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Olin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Olin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Olin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Olin's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Olin's historical news coverage. Olin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.55 and 28.01, respectively. We have considered Olin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Olin is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Olin is based on 3 months time horizon.
Olin Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Olin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Olin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Olin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 3.23 | 0.32 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 14 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.46 | 24.78 | 1.31 |
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Olin Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Olin is traded for 24.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.32, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Olin is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 24.78 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 100.62%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.31%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Olin is about 575.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.52. The company reported the last year's revenue of 6.54 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 105 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 628.1 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Olin to cross-verify your projections.Olin Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Olin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Olin's future price movements. Getting to know how Olin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Olin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Olin
For every potential investor in Olin, whether a beginner or expert, Olin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Olin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Olin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Olin's price trends.View Olin Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Olin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Olin stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Olin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Olin stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Olin Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Olin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Olin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Olin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting olin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.21 | |||
| Variance | 10.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Olin
The number of cover stories for Olin depends on current market conditions and Olin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Olin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Olin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Olin Short Properties
Olin's future price predictability will typically decrease when Olin's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Olin Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Olin's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Olin's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 119.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 175.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Olin to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Is Commodity Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Olin. If investors know Olin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Olin listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Dividend Share 0.8 | Earnings Share 0.46 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.078 |
The market value of Olin is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Olin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Olin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Olin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Olin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Olin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Olin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Olin is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Olin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.