Open Text Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OTEX Stock | USD 28.85 0.10 0.35% |
Open Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength indicator of Open Text's share price is below 30 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Open Text Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.832 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1029 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.1351 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.4644 | Wall Street Target Price 40 |
Using Open Text hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Open Text Corp from the perspective of Open Text response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Open Text using Open Text's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Open using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Open Text's stock price.
Open Text Short Interest
An investor who is long Open Text may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Open Text and may potentially protect profits, hedge Open Text with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 31.8139 | Short Percent 0.0391 | Short Ratio 9.86 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.3 M | 50 Day MA 32.8072 |
Open Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Open Text Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.84.Open Text Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Open Text's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Open. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Open can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Open Text Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Open Text's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Open Text.
Open Text Implied Volatility | 0.75 |
Open Text's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Open Text Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Open Text's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Open Text stock will not fluctuate a lot when Open Text's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Open Text Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.84. Open Text after-hype prediction price | USD 28.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Open Text to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Open contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Open Text Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0469% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Open Text trading at USD 28.85, that is roughly USD 0.0135 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Open Text's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Open Text Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.75%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Open Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Open Text's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Open Text's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Open Text stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Open Text's open interest, investors have to compare it to Open Text's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Open Text is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Open. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Open Text Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Open price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Open using various technical indicators. When you analyze Open charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Open Text Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Open Text Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Open Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Open Text's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Open Text Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Open Text | Open Text Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Open Text Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Open Text's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Open Text's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.27 and 30.43, respectively. We have considered Open Text's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Open Text stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Open Text stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.216 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1753 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.414 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.84 |
Predictive Modules for Open Text
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Open Text Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Open Text's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Open Text After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Open Text at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Open Text or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Open Text, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Open Text Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Open Text's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Open Text's historical news coverage. Open Text's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.22 and 30.48, respectively. We have considered Open Text's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Open Text is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Open Text Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Open Text Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Open Text is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Open Text backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Open Text, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 1.58 | 1.14 | 0.47 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.85 | 28.85 | 0.00 |
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Open Text Hype Timeline
Open Text Corp is now traded for 28.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.47. Open is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 60.77%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.44%. %. The volatility of related hype on Open Text is about 148.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.32. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.84. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Open Text Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.87. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 25th of January 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Open Text to cross-verify your projections.Open Text Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Open Text's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Open Text's future price movements. Getting to know how Open Text's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Open Text may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IDCC | InterDigital | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.53 | (4.57) | 17.55 | |
| PAYC | Paycom Software | (0.67) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 2.32 | (3.50) | 11.72 | |
| APPF | Appfolio | 5.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.09 | (3.72) | 12.22 | |
| NICE | Nice Ltd ADR | (0.10) | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.22 | (3.81) | 18.80 | |
| ESTC | Elastic NV | 0.56 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.82 | (3.82) | 18.64 | |
| DOX | Amdocs | 1.89 | 12 per month | 1.80 | (0.05) | 1.50 | (1.79) | 8.96 | |
| PEGA | Pegasystems | 1.98 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.59 | (4.07) | 21.07 | |
| TTAN | ServiceTitan Class A | (2.47) | 12 per month | 2.69 | (0.03) | 3.83 | (4.54) | 17.57 | |
| MANH | Manhattan Associates | 3.56 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.51 | (4.09) | 7.48 | |
| AKAM | Akamai Technologies | 0.91 | 10 per month | 1.64 | 0.13 | 4.01 | (3.43) | 18.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Open Text
For every potential investor in Open, whether a beginner or expert, Open Text's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Open Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Open. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Open Text's price trends.Open Text Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Open Text stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Open Text could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Open Text by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Open Text Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Open Text stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Open Text shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Open Text stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Open Text Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Open Text Risk Indicators
The analysis of Open Text's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Open Text's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting open stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Open Text
The number of cover stories for Open Text depends on current market conditions and Open Text's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Open Text is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Open Text's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Open Text Short Properties
Open Text's future price predictability will typically decrease when Open Text's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Open Text Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Open Text's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Open Text's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 263.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Additional Tools for Open Stock Analysis
When running Open Text's price analysis, check to measure Open Text's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Open Text is operating at the current time. Most of Open Text's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Open Text's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Open Text's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Open Text to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.