Plains GP Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PAGP Stock | USD 20.42 0.09 0.44% |
Plains Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Plains GP's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Plains GP's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Plains GP fundamentals over time.
The value of relative strength index of Plains GP's share price is above 70 as of today indicating that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Plains, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.502 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5125 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.6025 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.9975 | Wall Street Target Price 20.8846 |
Using Plains GP hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Plains GP Holdings from the perspective of Plains GP response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Plains GP using Plains GP's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Plains using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Plains GP's stock price.
Plains GP Short Interest
An investor who is long Plains GP may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Plains GP and may potentially protect profits, hedge Plains GP with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 18.6491 | Short Percent 0.0518 | Short Ratio 7.21 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.1 M | 50 Day MA 18.933 |
Plains Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plains GP Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 20.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.13.Plains GP Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Plains GP's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Plains. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Plains can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Plains GP Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Plains GP's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Plains GP.
Plains GP Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
Plains GP's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Plains GP Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Plains GP's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Plains GP stock will not fluctuate a lot when Plains GP's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plains GP Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 20.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.13. Plains GP after-hype prediction price | USD 20.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plains GP to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Plains contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Plains GP Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Plains GP trading at USD 20.42, that is roughly USD 0.00485 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Plains GP's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Plains GP Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Plains Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Plains GP's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Plains GP's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Plains GP stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Plains GP's open interest, investors have to compare it to Plains GP's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Plains GP is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Plains. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Plains GP Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Plains price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Plains using various technical indicators. When you analyze Plains charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Plains GP Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Plains GP's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 460 M | Current Value 1.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 682.6 M |
Plains GP Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plains GP Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 20.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plains Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plains GP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Plains GP Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Plains GP | Plains GP Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Plains GP Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Plains GP's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plains GP's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.40 and 21.07, respectively. We have considered Plains GP's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plains GP stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plains GP stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2243 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.117 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0062 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.1345 |
Predictive Modules for Plains GP
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plains GP Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Plains GP After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Plains GP at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Plains GP or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Plains GP, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Plains GP Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Plains GP's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Plains GP's historical news coverage. Plains GP's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.54 and 21.22, respectively. We have considered Plains GP's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Plains GP is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Plains GP Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Plains GP Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Plains GP is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Plains GP backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Plains GP, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 0.84 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.42 | 20.38 | 0.25 |
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Plains GP Hype Timeline
Plains GP Holdings is at this time traded for 20.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Plains is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.38 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Plains GP is about 2470.59%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.43. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 50.07 B. Net Income was 1.07 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.9 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plains GP to cross-verify your projections.Plains GP Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Plains GP's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Plains GP's future price movements. Getting to know how Plains GP's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Plains GP may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPOR | Gulfport Energy Operating | 0.20 | 12 per month | 2.38 | 0.01 | 3.11 | (3.84) | 13.69 | |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers | (0.85) | 10 per month | 1.69 | (0.01) | 3.24 | (2.67) | 12.30 | |
| RIG | Transocean | (0.1) | 11 per month | 1.88 | 0.19 | 5.53 | (3.37) | 20.08 | |
| KGS | Kodiak Gas Services | 0.37 | 9 per month | 1.89 | 0.08 | 3.17 | (2.63) | 9.67 | |
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | 0.28 | 11 per month | 1.30 | 0.07 | 2.18 | (1.69) | 10.05 | |
| BTU | Peabody Energy Corp | 0.1 | 9 per month | 2.65 | 0.07 | 5.97 | (4.16) | 15.25 | |
| CVI | CVR Energy | (1.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.40 | (4.12) | 14.85 | |
| WHD | Cactus Inc | 0.53 | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.23 | 3.80 | (2.76) | 11.21 | |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure | 1.04 | 10 per month | 4.39 | 0.02 | 6.50 | (5.71) | 21.92 | |
| HP | Helmerich and Payne | (0.22) | 10 per month | 1.87 | 0.17 | 4.39 | (4.04) | 14.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Plains GP
For every potential investor in Plains, whether a beginner or expert, Plains GP's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plains Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plains. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plains GP's price trends.Plains GP Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plains GP stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plains GP could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plains GP by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Plains GP Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Plains GP stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Plains GP shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Plains GP stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Plains GP Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Plains GP Risk Indicators
The analysis of Plains GP's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plains GP's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting plains stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6814 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3809 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8745 | |||
| Variance | 0.7648 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6634 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1451 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Plains GP
The number of cover stories for Plains GP depends on current market conditions and Plains GP's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Plains GP is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Plains GP's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Plains GP Short Properties
Plains GP's future price predictability will typically decrease when Plains GP's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Plains GP Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Plains GP's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Plains GP's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 197 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 349 M |
Additional Tools for Plains Stock Analysis
When running Plains GP's price analysis, check to measure Plains GP's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Plains GP is operating at the current time. Most of Plains GP's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Plains GP's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Plains GP's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Plains GP to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.