Plains GP Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

PAGP Stock  USD 20.33  0.01  0.05%   
Plains Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Plains GP's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 69

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Plains GP's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Plains GP Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Plains GP hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Plains GP Holdings from the perspective of Plains GP response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Plains GP Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 20.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.87.

Plains GP after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 20.33  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plains GP to cross-verify your projections.

Plains GP Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Plains price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Plains using various technical indicators. When you analyze Plains charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Plains GP price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Plains GP Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Plains GP Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 20.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.87.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plains Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plains GP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Plains GP Stock Forecast Pattern

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Plains GP Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Plains GP's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plains GP's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.49 and 21.19, respectively. We have considered Plains GP's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.33
20.34
Expected Value
21.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plains GP stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plains GP stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.2655
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1947
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0103
SAESum of the absolute errors11.8744
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Plains GP Holdings historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Plains GP

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plains GP Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.4920.3321.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.3023.1223.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.3619.6120.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Plains GP. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Plains GP's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Plains GP's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Plains GP Holdings.

Plains GP After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Plains GP at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Plains GP or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Plains GP, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Plains GP Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Plains GP's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Plains GP's historical news coverage. Plains GP's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.49 and 21.17, respectively. We have considered Plains GP's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
20.33
20.33
After-hype Price
21.17
Upside
Plains GP is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Plains GP Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Plains GP Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Plains GP is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Plains GP backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Plains GP, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.27 
0.85
 0.00  
  0.21 
0 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
20.33
20.33
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Plains GP Hype Timeline

Plains GP Holdings is at this time traded for 20.33. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.21. Plains is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on Plains GP is about 108.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.54. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Plains GP was at this time reported as 6.8. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7. Plains GP Holdings last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The entity had 375:1000 split on the 16th of November 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plains GP to cross-verify your projections.

Plains GP Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Plains GP's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Plains GP's future price movements. Getting to know how Plains GP's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Plains GP may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GPORGulfport Energy Operating 2.88 11 per month 2.41  0.02  3.11 (3.84) 13.69 
STNGScorpio Tankers 2.46 8 per month 1.69 (0.01) 3.24 (2.67) 12.30 
RIGTransocean 2.88 29 per month 2.01  0.16  3.34 (3.37) 12.06 
KGSKodiak Gas Services 0.37 9 per month 1.91  0.10  3.17 (2.63) 9.67 
DKLDelek Logistics Partners 0.00 0 per month 1.31  0.05  2.18 (1.69) 10.05 
BTUPeabody Energy Corp(0.64)11 per month 2.65  0.07  5.97 (4.16) 15.25 
CVICVR Energy(0.45)11 per month 0.00 (0.23) 4.40 (4.46) 14.85 
WHDCactus Inc 0.53 8 per month 1.26  0.23  3.80 (2.76) 11.21 
SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure 0.00 0 per month 4.29  0.02  5.95 (5.71) 21.92 
HPHelmerich and Payne(0.22)10 per month 1.83  0.18  4.39 (4.04) 14.89 

Other Forecasting Options for Plains GP

For every potential investor in Plains, whether a beginner or expert, Plains GP's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plains Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plains. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plains GP's price trends.

Plains GP Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plains GP stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plains GP could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plains GP by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Plains GP Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Plains GP stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Plains GP shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Plains GP stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Plains GP Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Plains GP Risk Indicators

The analysis of Plains GP's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plains GP's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting plains stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Plains GP

The number of cover stories for Plains GP depends on current market conditions and Plains GP's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Plains GP is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Plains GP's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Plains GP Short Properties

Plains GP's future price predictability will typically decrease when Plains GP's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Plains GP Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Plains GP's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Plains GP's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding197 M
Cash And Short Term Investments349 M

Additional Tools for Plains Stock Analysis

When running Plains GP's price analysis, check to measure Plains GP's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Plains GP is operating at the current time. Most of Plains GP's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Plains GP's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Plains GP's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Plains GP to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.