PagSeguro Digital Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

PAGS Stock  USD 8.22  0.28  3.53%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PagSeguro Digital on the next trading day is expected to be 7.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.70. PagSeguro Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, PagSeguro Digital's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 15.33 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 0.37 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 348.7 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 1.8 B in 2024.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through PagSeguro Digital price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

PagSeguro Digital Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of PagSeguro Digital on the next trading day is expected to be 7.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PagSeguro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PagSeguro Digital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PagSeguro Digital Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PagSeguro DigitalPagSeguro Digital Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

PagSeguro Digital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PagSeguro Digital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PagSeguro Digital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.17 and 9.85, respectively. We have considered PagSeguro Digital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.22
7.51
Expected Value
9.85
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PagSeguro Digital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PagSeguro Digital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2095
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2855
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0322
SAESum of the absolute errors17.7028
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as PagSeguro Digital historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for PagSeguro Digital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PagSeguro Digital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.768.0310.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.879.1411.41
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.9712.0513.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PagSeguro Digital. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PagSeguro Digital's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PagSeguro Digital's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PagSeguro Digital.

Other Forecasting Options for PagSeguro Digital

For every potential investor in PagSeguro, whether a beginner or expert, PagSeguro Digital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PagSeguro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PagSeguro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PagSeguro Digital's price trends.

PagSeguro Digital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PagSeguro Digital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PagSeguro Digital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PagSeguro Digital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PagSeguro Digital Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PagSeguro Digital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PagSeguro Digital's current price.

PagSeguro Digital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PagSeguro Digital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PagSeguro Digital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PagSeguro Digital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PagSeguro Digital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PagSeguro Digital Risk Indicators

The analysis of PagSeguro Digital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PagSeguro Digital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pagseguro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  

Additional Tools for PagSeguro Stock Analysis

When running PagSeguro Digital's price analysis, check to measure PagSeguro Digital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PagSeguro Digital is operating at the current time. Most of PagSeguro Digital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PagSeguro Digital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PagSeguro Digital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PagSeguro Digital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.