Paycom Software Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

PAYC Stock  USD 141.54  0.65  0.46%   
Paycom Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Paycom Software stock prices and determine the direction of Paycom Software's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Paycom Software's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of Paycom Software's share price is approaching 31 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Paycom Software, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 31

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Paycom Software's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Paycom Software, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Paycom Software's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.496
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.4711
EPS Estimate Current Year
9.2998
EPS Estimate Next Year
10.0447
Wall Street Target Price
201.2941
Using Paycom Software hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Paycom Software from the perspective of Paycom Software response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Paycom Software using Paycom Software's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Paycom using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Paycom Software's stock price.

Paycom Software Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Paycom Software's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Paycom. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Paycom Software stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
208.3475
Short Percent
0.0616
Short Ratio
3.42
Shares Short Prior Month
2.6 M
50 Day MA
159.9352

Paycom Relative Strength Index

The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Paycom Software on the next trading day is expected to be 141.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.06.

Paycom Software Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Paycom Software's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Paycom. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Paycom can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Paycom Software. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Paycom Software's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Paycom Software.

Paycom Software Implied Volatility

    
  0.39  
Paycom Software's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Paycom Software stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Paycom Software's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Paycom Software stock will not fluctuate a lot when Paycom Software's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Paycom Software on the next trading day is expected to be 141.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.06.

Paycom Software after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 141.92  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paycom Software to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Paycom Stock refer to our How to Trade Paycom Stock guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Paycom contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Paycom Software will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0244% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Paycom Software trading at USD 141.54, that is roughly USD 0.0345 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Paycom Software's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Paycom Software options at the current volatility level of 0.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Paycom Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Paycom Software's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Paycom Software's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Paycom Software stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Paycom Software's open interest, investors have to compare it to Paycom Software's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Paycom Software is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Paycom. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Paycom Software Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Paycom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Paycom using various technical indicators. When you analyze Paycom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Paycom Software is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Paycom Software Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Paycom Software on the next trading day is expected to be 141.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.81, mean absolute percentage error of 16.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Paycom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Paycom Software's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Paycom Software Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Paycom Software  Paycom Software Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Paycom Software Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Paycom Software's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Paycom Software's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 139.75 and 143.98, respectively. We have considered Paycom Software's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
141.54
139.75
Downside
141.87
Expected Value
143.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Paycom Software stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Paycom Software stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2559
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.1264
MADMean absolute deviation2.8147
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0177
SAESum of the absolute errors166.065
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Paycom Software price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Paycom Software. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Paycom Software

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Paycom Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Paycom Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
139.80141.92144.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
127.97153.97156.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
144.39155.15165.91
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
183.18201.29223.44
Details

Paycom Software After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Paycom Software at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Paycom Software or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Paycom Software, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Paycom Software Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Paycom Software's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Paycom Software's historical news coverage. Paycom Software's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 139.80 and 144.04, respectively. We have considered Paycom Software's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
141.54
139.80
Downside
141.92
After-hype Price
144.04
Upside
Paycom Software is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Paycom Software is based on 3 months time horizon.

Paycom Software Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Paycom Software is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Paycom Software backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Paycom Software, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.41 
2.12
  0.27 
  0.04 
7 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
141.54
141.92
0.19 
316.42  
Notes

Paycom Software Hype Timeline

Paycom Software is at this time traded for 141.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Paycom is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 141.92. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Paycom Software is about 2465.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 141.58. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Paycom Software was at this time reported as 31.72. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.73. Paycom Software recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.05. The entity last dividend was issued on the 24th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paycom Software to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Paycom Stock refer to our How to Trade Paycom Stock guide.

Paycom Software Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Paycom Software's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Paycom Software's future price movements. Getting to know how Paycom Software's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Paycom Software may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
IDCCInterDigital 3.23 8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 3.53 (4.57) 17.55 
OTEXOpen Text Corp 0.02 9 per month 0.00 (0.34) 1.45 (3.91) 7.58 
PEGAPegasystems(1.61)10 per month 0.00 (0.19) 4.17 (4.07) 11.55 
DAYDayforce(0.13)10 per month 0.00 (0.43) 0.29 (0.16) 0.67 
MANHManhattan Associates 2.06 8 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.51 (4.09) 7.48 
AKAMAkamai Technologies 0.91 10 per month 1.55  0.17  4.04 (3.43) 18.87 
GTMZoomInfo Technologies(0.20)11 per month 0.00 (0.15) 4.11 (4.63) 16.16 
MNDYMondayCom(6.12)7 per month 0.00 (0.23) 3.19 (6.07) 17.07 
APPFAppfolio 5.05 9 per month 0.00 (0.10) 3.09 (3.72) 12.22 
PCTYPaylocity Holdng(2.35)9 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.51 (3.07) 9.24 

Other Forecasting Options for Paycom Software

For every potential investor in Paycom, whether a beginner or expert, Paycom Software's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Paycom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Paycom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Paycom Software's price trends.

Paycom Software Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Paycom Software stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Paycom Software could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Paycom Software by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Paycom Software Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Paycom Software stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Paycom Software shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Paycom Software stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Paycom Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Paycom Software Risk Indicators

The analysis of Paycom Software's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Paycom Software's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting paycom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Paycom Software

The number of cover stories for Paycom Software depends on current market conditions and Paycom Software's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Paycom Software is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Paycom Software's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Paycom Software Short Properties

Paycom Software's future price predictability will typically decrease when Paycom Software's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Paycom Software often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Paycom Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Paycom Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding56.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments402 M
When determining whether Paycom Software offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Paycom Software's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Paycom Software Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Paycom Software Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paycom Software to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Paycom Stock refer to our How to Trade Paycom Stock guide.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Paycom Software. If investors know Paycom will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Paycom Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.496
Dividend Share
1.5
Earnings Share
8.05
Revenue Per Share
35.706
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.092
The market value of Paycom Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Paycom that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Paycom Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Paycom Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Paycom Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Paycom Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Paycom Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Paycom Software is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Paycom Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.