Pearl Diver Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PDCC Stock | 13.85 0.03 0.22% |
Pearl Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pearl Diver stock prices and determine the direction of Pearl Diver Credit's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pearl Diver's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of Pearl Diver's share price is approaching 39 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pearl Diver, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year 2.01 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.295 | Wall Street Target Price 19 |
Using Pearl Diver hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pearl Diver Credit from the perspective of Pearl Diver response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pearl Diver Credit on the next trading day is expected to be 13.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.86. Pearl Diver after-hype prediction price | USD 13.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pearl Diver to cross-verify your projections. Pearl Diver Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pearl price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pearl using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pearl charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pearl Diver Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pearl Diver Credit on the next trading day is expected to be 13.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pearl Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pearl Diver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pearl Diver Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pearl Diver | Pearl Diver Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pearl Diver Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pearl Diver's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pearl Diver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.76 and 14.90, respectively. We have considered Pearl Diver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pearl Diver stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pearl Diver stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 6.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1163 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.8609 |
Predictive Modules for Pearl Diver
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pearl Diver Credit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pearl Diver's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Pearl Diver After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pearl Diver at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pearl Diver or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pearl Diver, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pearl Diver Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pearl Diver's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pearl Diver's historical news coverage. Pearl Diver's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.78 and 14.94, respectively. We have considered Pearl Diver's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pearl Diver is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pearl Diver Credit is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pearl Diver Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pearl Diver is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pearl Diver backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pearl Diver, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.07 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.85 | 13.86 | 0.14 |
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Pearl Diver Hype Timeline
Pearl Diver Credit is at this time traded for 13.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Pearl is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 13.86. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Pearl Diver is about 656.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.88. About 63.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.76. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Pearl Diver Credit last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pearl Diver to cross-verify your projections.Pearl Diver Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pearl Diver's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pearl Diver's future price movements. Getting to know how Pearl Diver's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pearl Diver may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SAMG | Silvercrest Asset Management | 0.70 | 8 per month | 1.24 | 0.02 | 2.52 | (2.28) | 8.38 | |
| TRPA | HARTFORD AAA CLO | 0.07 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.44) | 0.23 | (0.16) | 0.54 | |
| OFS | OFS Capital Corp | 0.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.51 | (5.92) | 16.14 | |
| OCCI | OFS Credit | (0.04) | 22 per month | 1.77 | 0.04 | 2.81 | (2.70) | 8.33 | |
| PFX | Phenixfin | 0.33 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.45 | (2.82) | 10.53 | |
| RBKB | Rhinebeck Bancorp | 0.34 | 5 per month | 1.19 | 0.11 | 3.65 | (2.18) | 8.81 | |
| SIEB | Siebert Financial Corp | 0.51 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.72 | (6.23) | 22.99 | |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.00 | (1.15) | 6.34 | |
| MAAS | Highest Performances Holdings | (0.35) | 3 per month | 3.61 | 0.19 | 8.26 | (6.17) | 20.85 | |
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.33 | (2.50) | 9.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pearl Diver
For every potential investor in Pearl, whether a beginner or expert, Pearl Diver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pearl Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pearl. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pearl Diver's price trends.Pearl Diver Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pearl Diver stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pearl Diver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pearl Diver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pearl Diver Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pearl Diver stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pearl Diver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pearl Diver stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pearl Diver Credit entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pearl Diver Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pearl Diver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pearl Diver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pearl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7631 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Variance | 1.12 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pearl Diver
The number of cover stories for Pearl Diver depends on current market conditions and Pearl Diver's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pearl Diver is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pearl Diver's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pearl Diver Short Properties
Pearl Diver's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pearl Diver's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pearl Diver Credit often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pearl Diver's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pearl Diver's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 188.1 K | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 2.64 |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pearl Diver to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Investment Banking & Brokerage space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pearl Diver. If investors know Pearl will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pearl Diver listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 0.61 |
The market value of Pearl Diver Credit is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pearl that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pearl Diver's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pearl Diver's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pearl Diver's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pearl Diver's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pearl Diver's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pearl Diver is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pearl Diver's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.