Philip Morris Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PM Stock | USD 160.40 1.55 0.96% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 167.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 186.80. Philip Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Philip Morris' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Philip Morris' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Philip Morris fundamentals over time.
As of now, The value of relative strength index of Philip Morris' share price is at 57 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Philip Morris, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.131 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.8026 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.5435 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.341 | Wall Street Target Price 182.875 |
Using Philip Morris hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Philip Morris International from the perspective of Philip Morris response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Philip Morris using Philip Morris' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Philip using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Philip Morris' stock price.
Philip Morris Short Interest
An investor who is long Philip Morris may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Philip Morris and may potentially protect profits, hedge Philip Morris with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 164.3233 | Short Percent 0.0113 | Short Ratio 3.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 16.6 M | 50 Day MA 154.2398 |
Philip Morris Intern Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Philip Morris' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Philip. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Philip can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Philip Morris International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Philip Morris' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Philip Morris.
Philip Morris Implied Volatility | 0.36 |
Philip Morris' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Philip Morris International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Philip Morris' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Philip Morris stock will not fluctuate a lot when Philip Morris' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 167.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 186.80. Philip Morris after-hype prediction price | USD 160.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Philip Morris to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Philip Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Philip Morris' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Philip Morris' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Philip Morris stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Philip Morris' open interest, investors have to compare it to Philip Morris' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Philip Morris is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Philip. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Philip Morris Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Philip price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Philip using various technical indicators. When you analyze Philip charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Philip Morris Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Philip Morris' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2006-12-31 | Previous Quarter 4.1 B | Current Value 4 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.7 B |
Philip Morris Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 167.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.06, mean absolute percentage error of 12.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 186.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Philip Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Philip Morris' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Philip Morris Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Philip Morris | Philip Morris Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Philip Morris Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Philip Morris' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Philip Morris' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 166.01 and 168.96, respectively. We have considered Philip Morris' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Philip Morris stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Philip Morris stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.6163 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0623 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0201 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 186.7975 |
Predictive Modules for Philip Morris
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Philip Morris Intern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Philip Morris
For every potential investor in Philip, whether a beginner or expert, Philip Morris' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Philip Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Philip. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Philip Morris' price trends.Philip Morris Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Philip Morris stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Philip Morris could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Philip Morris by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Philip Morris Intern Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Philip Morris' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Philip Morris' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Philip Morris Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Philip Morris stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Philip Morris shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Philip Morris stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Philip Morris International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Philip Morris Risk Indicators
The analysis of Philip Morris' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Philip Morris' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting philip stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Variance | 2.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.89 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Prophet is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Philip Morris to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Tobacco space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Philip Morris. If investors know Philip will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Philip Morris listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.131 | Dividend Share 5.52 | Earnings Share 7.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 |
The market value of Philip Morris Intern is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Philip that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Philip Morris' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Philip Morris' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Philip Morris' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Philip Morris' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Philip Morris' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Philip Morris is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Philip Morris' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.